{
  "id": 15709180,
  "title": "Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecast, stand pat on rates, sources say",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/20/bank-of-japan-may-raise-inflation-forecast-stand-pat-on-rates-sources",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-20T05:52:38.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "CNA - Business",
    "slug": "cna-business",
    "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/bank-japan-may-raise-inflation-forecast-stand-pat-rates-sources-say-6474661"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Tokyo, October 20 - The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation outlook for the upcoming fiscal year in forecasts released this month, according to four sources familiar with the central bank's thinking. Rising oil prices have led to extended price pressures on the economy, causing the BOJ to consider adjusting its inflation forecast. Having recently increased interest rates last month, the BOJ is expected to maintain steady rates during its two-day meeting ending on October 30, unless the yen continues to weaken, which would lift import costs and broader inflation, the sources said. However, the central bank will likely keep its attention on rising inflationary risks in a quarterly report due after the meeting, leaving room for another rate hike as early as December. Consumer price growth may remain elevated for a longer period than anticipated, but there is no significant change in underlying inflation, said one source, a sentiment echoed by two other sources. Another source stated that there is little reason to rush the timing of the next rate hike, as inflation pressures are present but have not surged. The BOJ's projections in July estimated core consumer inflation reaching 2.5% in the current fiscal year, ending in March 2027, before slowing to 2.4% the following year, assuming the initial fuel cost increase would moderate from the latter half of next year. New forecasts due this month may slightly revise up the core inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 to account for the pass-through from recent and renewed spikes in crude oil prices, the sources said. Any revisions will be minor, with little indication that dangerous second-round effects, where the energy shock triggers a spiral of sharp wage and price increases, are becoming embedded in the economy, they added. The BOJ is expected to roughly maintain its economic forecasts, projecting growth of 0.6% in fiscal 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with robust exports of AI-related goods offsetting soft consumption. The BOJ is unlikely to factor in the expected impact of a two-year consumption tax reduction on food items, as a bill for the measure has not yet passed parliament.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}