{
  "id": 15350430,
  "title": "The S&P 500's \"Average\" Year Almost Never Happens. Here's How Often It Actually Lands Near 10%.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/18/the-s-p-500s-average-year-almost-never-happens-heres-how-often-it",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-18T04:27:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/18/the-s-and-p-500-s-average-year-almost-never-happens-here-s-how-often-it-actually-lands-near-10/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The S&P 500 typically delivers around 10.6% annual returns over long periods, making it a popular choice for long-term investors. However, this average is not representative of individual years. Only four out of 69 calendar years from 1957 to 2025 saw total returns between 8% and 12%, while 15 years saw losses, and 25 years finished with gains over 20%. When sorted by returns, more years exceed the average than fall below it. Notably, 39 years ended with returns above 12%, while 26 years ended below 8%, including the 15 losing years. The most extreme year was 1958, with a 44% gain, while the worst was 2008, with a 37% decline during the financial crisis. Even the narrow range of 5% to 15% covers only 14 of the 69 years. The recent record shows a similar pattern, with the index climbing more than 18% in seven of the next nine years following 2016's return of around 11.8%. The reasons behind this discrepancy lie in the fact that losing years can be significant, and a substantial loss requires an even larger gain to recover. The 37% drop in 2008, for example, necessitated a 58% gain to break even, pulling the long-run compound return down to around 10.6%. Consequently, a 10% return may not accurately forecast any given year, but it represents the sum of many good years and a few bad ones. As the time frame extends, the average begins to align more closely with the observed returns. For instance, 10-year periods achieve this range in 22% of cases, while 20-year periods are above 50%, and 30-year periods exceed 75%. In summary, the 10% figure largely represents long-term trends rather than yearly performance, and even then, significant deviations can occur based on the valuation of the index at the beginning of the period.",
  "summary": "Most years miss the long-run average by a lot. More of them miss on the high side.",
  "key_points": [
    "Only 4 out of 69 years had returns between 8% and 12%",
    "15 years saw losses, and 25 years had gains over 20%",
    "10% return represents long-term trends, not yearly performance"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Nasdaq Markets",
        "title": "The S&P 500's \"Average\" Year Almost Never Happens. Here's How Often It Actually Lands Near 10%.",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/18/the-s-p-500s-average-year-almost-never-happens-heres-how-often-it-15358121",
        "published": "2026-10-18T04:47:02.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}