{
  "id": 15168168,
  "title": "Renaissance Capital raises Dangote Refinery valuation to N700.41 per share",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/17/renaissance-capital-raises-dangote-refinery-valuation-to-n700-41-per",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-17T09:39:13.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Nairametrics",
    "slug": "nairametrics",
    "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2026/10/17/renaissance-capital-raises-dangote-refinery-valuation-to-n700-41-per-share/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has increased its assessment of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, marking a 33.4% premium over the N525 IPO bid price. This upgrade occurred due to impressive financial results for the nine months ending September 2026, as the refinery outperformed expectations in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit. The update, issued on October 16, 2026, stated that these stronger margins were the primary driver behind the earnings surge. Previously, RCA had valued the refinery at N619.47 per share, which now represents a 13.1% rise. This new valuation implies a market value of $63 billion based on the existing 120.13 billion shares. However, after deducting IPO proceeds and considering new shares, RCA's revised valuation stood at N694.28 per share, reflecting a 32.2% premium to the offering price. Dangote Refinery's net profit for the period reached $4.73 billion, surpassing the previous net loss of $117.2 million recorded in the same period of 2025. The company's financial situation improved, transitioning from net debt of $1.73 billion a year prior to a net cash position of $650.8 million. The enhanced performance was primarily attributed to the third quarter, when revenues surged by 19.7% to $8.57 billion, exceeding RCA's expectation. Operating cash costs remained close to the estimated $5.65 billion, indicating that improved refining margins, rather than reduced costs, were the main contributors to the stronger performance. RCA noted that the refinery's earnings boost was influenced by a significant rise in refining cracks, particularly in the Atlantic Basin, where US Gulf Coast jet fuel and gasoil cracks averaged $75.59 and $72.57 per barrel, respectively, compared to $56.40 and $44.40 in the previous quarter. Additionally, around 88% of the refinery's June jet fuel output exceeded Nigeria's domestic demand and was sold to international buyers. Furthermore, Dangote Refinery was identified as Europe's largest jet fuel supplier in July and August. RCA raised its full-year 2026 gross refining margin forecast to $35.81 per barrel, up from $27.55, and increased revenue and EBITDA projections by 7.4% and 34.6%, respectively. The firm's valuation increase of 8.5% was primarily driven by changes to its 2026 forecasts, with the rest resulting from the refinery's net cash position, a later valuation date, and adjustments to exchange-rate and discount-rate assumptions.",
  "summary": "Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, representing a 33.4% premium to the N525 IPO offer price. The post Renaissance Capital raises Dangote Refinery valuation to N700.41 per share appeared first on Nairametrics .",
  "key_points": [
    "Renaissance Capital raises Dangote Refinery valuation to N700.41 per share",
    "Nine-month results outperformed expectations in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit",
    "Stronger margins and improved financial situation drove earnings surge"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}