{
  "id": 15140505,
  "title": "Bolsonaro and Lula head into the final stretch of Brazil’s campaign in a statistical tie",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/17/bolsonaro-and-lula-head-into-the-final-stretch-of-brazils-campaign-in",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-10-17T06:23:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MercoPress",
    "slug": "mercopress",
    "url": "https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/17/bolsonaro-and-lula-head-into-the-final-stretch-of-brazil-s-campaign-in-a-statistical-tie"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Bolsonaro and Lula are currently tied in the final stages of Brazil's election campaign for the October 25 runoff, as per two recent polls. According to a Datafolha survey, Bolsonaro holds 51% of the vote, while Lula has 49%, though this figure has shifted from 52% to 48% in the past week, with a margin of error of two points. A Quaest poll, published on Wednesday, shows Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%, again within the margin of error. Approximately 9% of voters plan to cast blank ballots, and only 1% are still undecided. The rejection rates are nearly identical, with 54% stating they would never vote for Bolsonaro and 53% for Lula. When asked which prospect they fear more, Lula's potential re-election or the return of the Bolsonaro family to power, respondents were split evenly, with 43% each. Lula leads in the northeast and among Bolsa Família beneficiaries, while Bolsonaro is favored in the south and among evangelicals. Both polls were conducted prior to the Senate approving a measure to shorten the workweek from 44 to 40 hours, a key part of Lula's campaign platform that Bolsonaro also supported. During a TV Globo interview, Lula expressed support for lowering the age of criminal responsibility for serious offenses, a proposal previously championed by Bolsonaro, who wished to reduce it from 18 to 16. Lula clarified, \"My opinion, as a Brazilian citizen, is that for any heinous crime, I am in favor of lowering the age of majority.\" Bolsonaro acknowledged his high rejection rate, attributing it to his failure to communicate effectively the government he helped form: \"If I failed to make people understand the government I formed, I cannot blame anyone, the fault is mine.\" Bolsonaro, who received 47.03% of the first-round vote compared to Lula's 45.16%, has garnered the support of most right-wing and center-right parties. He has pledged to preserve existing social programs and establish a Ministry of Prosperity. The candidates will meet for their first debate on Sunday, airing on Band network.",
  "summary": "Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are heading into the final days of the campaign for the October 25 runoff in a statistical tie, according to two new polls. A Datafolha survey released on Thursday night gives Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, compared with 52% and 48% a week earlier, with a margin of error of two points.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}