{
  "id": 15048027,
  "title": "Top? Beware Your Confirmation Bias",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/16/top-beware-your-confirmation-bias",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-16T20:00:17.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Big Picture",
    "slug": "the-big-picture",
    "url": "https://ritholtz.com/2026/10/top-beware-your-confirmation-bias/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Experts caution against the influence of confirmation bias in interpreting market trends. The current surge in Crude Oil prices, soaring above $110 per barrel, has many investors on edge, as does the uncertainty surrounding CoreWeave and Private Credit Alt defaults. People often select data that supports their pre-existing beliefs, leading to a skewed understanding of the situation. Reflecting on past writings, the author finds it challenging to embrace either a bullish or bearish viewpoint, instead seeking contradictory evidence.\n\nA chart from Nicholas Colas of Datatrek illustrates three-year rolling returns for the Nasdaq, suggesting that bubbles typically form around technology and are not imminent. Despite having experienced double-digit gains in equities for the past four years, the magnitude of the current rise is notably lower than during the dotcom peak of 1996-99. While the conclusion is not definitive, the act of searching for data-driven insights instead of relying solely on emotional reactions proves enlightening.",
  "summary": "“Are we in the 6th, 8th, or 9th inning? I don’t know, but I suspect the beginning of this bull is further away than the end.” –Me, 5 days ago I always hate the after-the-fact explanations of why the market is doing anything on any given day — but it’s hard… Read More The post Top? Beware Your Confirmation Bias appeared first on The Big Picture .",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}