{
  "id": 15032515,
  "title": "Gold stumbles as US yields eclipse fading October Fed hike bets",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/16/gold-stumbles-as-us-yields-eclipse-fading-october-fed-hike-bets",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-16T19:21:29.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-stumbles-as-us-yields-eclipse-fading-october-fed-hike-bets-202610161921"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Gold prices dipped slightly on Friday, trading at $4,163, on track for a weekly decline. The retreat occurred as traders reviewed recent US inflation data, which exceeded expectations but diminished hopes for an early Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increase during their October meeting. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the US rose 3.7% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 6.3% year-over-year, far exceeding estimates of 5.3%. These figures fueled speculation that the FOMC might hike interest rates later in the month, with near 60% probability. However, as the trading day unfolded, most financial institutions revised their forecasts, pushing the likelihood of a rate hike to December instead. Money markets now assign a 16% chance of a 25 basis points increase at the October FOMC meeting, while the probability of a rise in December is high at 89%, according to Prime Terminal. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added to the uncertainty by not providing any guidance on future interest rates, although he acknowledged the robustness of the US economy. Although investors had used gold to protect against inflation, soaring US Treasury yields have weakened the precious metal. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed three basis points to 5.106% but failed to lift the US Dollar, as higher borrowing costs weighed heavily on the greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar's performance against six foreign currencies, slipped 0.10% to 101.87. Throughout the week, industrial production in the US accelerated to 0.7% month-over-month in September, outpacing expectations of 0.4% and the previous month's 0.1% growth. Next week, investors will focus on housing data, Initial Jobless Claims, and Flash PMIs. Gold has been oscillating between gains and losses below the pivotal $4,200 level throughout the day, trading within the $4,100-$4,200 range. The metal seemed to have bottomed near the range's lower limit. Momentum indicators show a bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a mild positive divergence, potentially paving the way for future upside. For a bullish turn, XAU/USD would need to surpass $4,200 and test the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,242. Above that, the 50-day SMA stands at $4,331, followed by the $4,500 mark. If gold continues its downward trend, the initial support level would be at $4,100. Breaking below this level could expose the October 14 low of $4,073, followed by the July 29 cycle low at $3,996 and the July 17 low at $3,959. The all-time low for gold is $3,941, which is below these recent levels. Historically, gold has served as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Central banks are the largest holders of gold, diversifying their reserves during turbulent periods to bolster their currencies' perceived strength and solvency. Gold demonstrates an inverse relationship with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, both of which are major safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates or interest rates rise, gold tends to appreciate, providing investors and central banks with a diversified asset class during uncertain times. Geopolitical instability, recession concerns, and a weakening US Dollar can all trigger gold price increases due to its safe-haven status.",
  "summary": "Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats about 0.10%, trading at $4,163 on Friday, poised for a weekly loss as traders assess recent US inflation data, which, although hotter than foreseen, led investors to trim their hawkish bets for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) October meeting.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}