{
  "id": 1460129,
  "title": "Turkish Lira: Market doubts disinflation and Lira stability – Commerzbank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/17/turkish-lira-market-doubts-disinflation-and-lira-stability-commerzbank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-17T09:42:27.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-market-doubts-disinflation-and-lira-stability-commerzbank-202608170942"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose highlights that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) survey reveals market participants adjusting their inflation forecasts upwards and anticipating only a gradual reduction in interest rates. While traders are marginally more hopeful about the USD/TRY pair's end-of-year outlook compared to Commerzbank's prediction, the convergence of one-year-ahead forecasts suggests a lack of strong confidence in ongoing disinflation or a stable Turkish Lira. Following a critique of the inflation report forecasts and the lira's outlook, the CBRT's own survey of market participants further emphasizes deteriorating expectations. The survey predicts inflation at 29.2% for the end of 2026 (revised from 28% by the CBRT) and 23.7% for the end of 2027 (down from 15%). The longer-term forecast is described as a passive mean reversion, with limited conviction in the prospects for disinflation. In terms of interest rates, market participants anticipate the repo rate to remain at 37.0% for now, but decrease to around 35% by year-end, representing a 500 basis points easing from the current effective 40% rate. Market participants display more optimism than Commerzbank regarding the USD/TRY exchange rate for year-end (market forecast: 51.66; Commerzbank: 53.0), but this optimism has been tempered by the one-year-ahead forecast, which now aligns with Commerzbank's own estimate of 56.0. Overall, the market's confidence in disinflation or a stable exchange rate is lacking.",
  "summary": "Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) survey shows market participants revising inflation forecasts higher and expecting only gradual rate cuts from current effective levels.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}