{
  "id": 14540360,
  "title": "Warmer climate could reshape hurricane risk and its relationship with El Niño around Hawai'i",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/14/warmer-climate-could-reshape-hurricane-risk-and-its-relationship-with",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-14T21:20:17.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Phys.org",
    "slug": "phys-org",
    "url": "https://phys.org/news/2026-10-warmer-climate-reshape-hurricane-relationship.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "A new study from the University of Hawai'i (UH) finds that a warming climate could alter hurricane risk around the Hawaiian Islands, even if the total number of storms remains uncertain. Lead author Nicole Murray, a former UH postdoctoral researcher, explains that the islands' unique hurricane threat, which doesn't require a traditional landfall, can still cause significant damage through strong winds, extreme rainfall, flooding, landslides, and high surf.\n\nTo investigate this, Murray and her team used a computer model called Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard, developed by co-authors Chia-Ying Lee and Suzana Camargo at Columbia University. This model simulated thousands of years of tropical cyclones based on seven global climate models, providing a larger sample of potential storms than actual observations.\n\nThe researchers examined storms within 300 nautical miles (556 kilometers) of Hawai'i and analyzed their frequency, intensity, tracks, duration, speed, and landfalls under historical, mid-century, and late-century climates. They found that while the total number of storms is uncertain, there will be a shift toward stronger storms. Furthermore, the relationship between El Niño and Hawai'i's tropical cyclone hazard becomes less pronounced by the late century, particularly for wind hazard. El Niño events historically bring stronger and more frequent storms, but in the late-century simulations, storm tracks shift southwest of the islands during El Niño conditions, unlike the historical La Niña pattern.\n\nThis shift in storm tracks and weakening of the El Niño-La Niña relationship is crucial for community preparedness. The study's findings, published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, help emergency managers, infrastructure planners, and communities understand not just how many hurricanes may hit Hawai'i, but also the specific hazards and risks associated with each type of storm.",
  "summary": "A new study examining how tropical cyclone activity near Hawai'i could change in a warmer future finds a shift toward stronger storms, even though substantial uncertainty remains about whether the total number of storms near the islands will increase.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}