{
  "id": 14421401,
  "title": "Inside the booming market for US midterm election bets",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/14/inside-the-booming-market-for-us-midterm-election-bets",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-14T10:12:55.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/inside-the-booming-market-for-us-midterm-election-bets-4948572"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In recent years, betting on US midterm elections has experienced a significant surge on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. These markets emerged in 2024, outpacing traditional polling in predicting that President Donald Trump would win the presidency. Traders can buy and sell contracts on various race outcomes, such as which party will control Congress, and the identity of individual winners. Elections bets account for a small portion of overall trading on prediction markets, but some policymakers and advocacy groups express concerns about their potential impact on public trust in democracy and the possibility of insider trading. Kalshi has suspended several candidates for betting on their own races, while NPR reported that campaign staff members also engaged in betting on races they worked on.\n\nAccording to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, a majority of Americans oppose using prediction markets for wagering on elections. Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a researcher at the Washington-based Anti-Corruption Data Collective, highlights the disruptive nature of this financial technology on the democratic process, noting that these markets reveal unbiased information. Polymarket and Kalshi claim to have robust systems to prevent misconduct and refer cases to US authorities. However, election prediction markets often face skepticism, with only 16% of markets this year relating to winners, compared to 71% in 2024. Instead, the majority of markets now focus on the margin by which candidates will win contests and voter turnout.\n\nMost trading volume is concentrated on a few races, particularly the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. A small group of traders on Polymarket's international platform dominate betting volume, controlling 70% of congressional betting this cycle. While Polymarket's election markets exhibit a 98% accuracy rate one day before an election, critics argue that these markets could undermine public trust in the electoral system and raise concerns about potential unethical behavior.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [
    "Betting on US midterm elections surged in 2024, outpacing traditional polling",
    "Markets reveal unbiased information, but raise concerns about democracy and insider trading",
    "Texas Senate race dominates trading volume, with 70% of congressional bets controlled by few traders"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}