{
  "id": 14387056,
  "title": "C919 set to lead way as Chinese aircraft forecast to secure 5% of world market in 20 years",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/14/c919-set-to-lead-way-as-chinese-aircraft-forecast-to-secure-5-of",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-10-14T06:52:28.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "South China Morning Post",
    "slug": "south-china-morning-post",
    "url": "https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3370841/c919-set-lead-way-chinese-aircraft-forecast-secure-5-world-market-20-years"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "China's state-owned aircraft manufacturer, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), is poised to secure 5% of the global fleet allocation by 2045, according to a recent forecast by aviation analytics firm Cirium. This forecast suggests that Airbus will hold 47% of the passenger fleet allocation, while Boeing will capture 39%. Embraer and ATR are expected to take 3% and 2% of the market, respectively.\n\nComac currently holds approximately 1% of the world's fleet, according to independent aviation analyst Li Hanming. The firm's annual aircraft fleet outlook indicates that the current concentration of market share among Airbus and Boeing will persist, with the gradual shift towards emerging manufacturers. The C919, a narrowbody jet produced by Comac, has received over 1,000 orders from Chinese airlines, but deliveries have fallen short of expectations. With just 15 deliveries last year and only three in the first quarter of this year, the company is still working to meet its production goals. Additionally, certification delays for the C919 in the European Union and U.S. restrictions on the shipment of American-made aircraft engines have impacted production plans.\n\nCirium's report predicts that China will command 18% of the world's aircraft fleet allocation by 2045. Narrowbody jets, including the C919, are projected to dominate the segment due to their larger seat capacity and cost efficiency. Narrowbody planes account for 76% of the modeled passenger fleet allocation, compared to just 3% for regional jets. The C919 is similar in size and capabilities to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737. The global passenger fleet is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.2% between 2026 and 2045, slightly below the forecast from the previous year. Cirium estimates that about 43,000 new passenger jets, freighter jets, and turboprop aircraft will be delivered globally during this period, with a total value of US$3.2 trillion. By 2045, more than 50,000 passenger aircraft will be in use worldwide.",
  "summary": "China’s chief civilian aircraft builder will command 5 per cent of the world’s fleet allocation by 2045 as global demand for narrowbody jets and the domestic order book look strong, an aviation analytics firm has forecast. Airbus would have 47 per cent of the passenger fleet allocation and Boeing 39 per cent, both leading state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), analytics…",
  "key_points": [
    "Comac aims to secure 5% of global fleet by 2045, according to Cirium forecast.",
    "Airbus and Boeing expected to hold 47% and 39% of passenger fleet respectively.",
    "C919 narrowbody jet currently holds 1% of world fleet, with limited deliveries."
  ],
  "editors_take": "Comac’s projected growth signals a long-term shift toward a more fragmented aviation market where emerging manufacturers slowly erode the historical dominance held by Airbus and Boeing.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}