{
  "id": 14282754,
  "title": "Steve Kamin: Tales from the Dollar-Yield Curve Nexus",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-13T20:02:37.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Econbrowser",
    "slug": "econbrowser",
    "url": "https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/10/steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Until early in President Donald Trump's second term, the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the difference between the slope in the U.S. yield curve and foreign yield curves was generally positive. An increase in U.S. 10-year yields compared to those abroad strengthened the dollar. However, immediately after \"Liberation Day\" in April 2025, when Trump announced \"reciprocal\" tariffs, that relationship flipped negative and became volatile, swinging around a lower baseline. This shift in the dollar's sensitivity is even more noticeable when we compare its average value before the Liberation Day announcement with its value afterward. If one views the real interest differential model as the main driver of dollar movements, the rising yields and lack of appreciation indicate higher risk rather than a better outlook for short-term interest rates. Torsten Slok notes that the ten-year yield has risen about a percentage point since the beginning of the year, with roughly half of that increase coming from higher real short rates and the other half from real risk premiums, inflation expectations, and inflation risk.",
  "summary": "From Steve Kamin: Until early in President Donald Trump’s second term, the sensitivity of the dollar to the difference between the slope in the U.S. yield curve and foreign yield curves was mainly positive, as expected. Increases in U.S. 10-year yields relative to those abroad boost the dollar. But immediately after “Liberation Day” in April […]",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}