{
  "id": 14251654,
  "title": "Depois do ‘rali Flavio’, JP Morgan eleva Rumo e corta Localiza; Motiva é ‘top pick’",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/depois-do-rali-flavio-jp-morgan-eleva-rumo-e-corta-localiza-motiva-e",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-13T17:15:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Brazil Journal",
    "slug": "brazil-journal",
    "url": "https://braziljournal.com/depois-do-rali-flavio-jp-morgan-eleva-rumo-e-corta-localiza-motiva-e-top-pick"
  },
  "original_language": "pt",
  "account": "The Brazilian financial giant JP Morgan has revised its transportation sector recommendations, boosting Rumo to a 'buy' rating from 'neutral' and lowering Localiza to 'neutral' from 'buy'. This adjustment is primarily due to the performance of these two stocks following Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in the first round of Brazil's recent elections. While Localiza shares surged by 31% during the 'Flavio rally' and 70% since a recent low in mid-August, Rumo rose by only 12%. The average performance of transportation stocks JP Morgan covers has seen a 37% increase. Analyst Guilherme Mendes acknowledged risks related to El Niño for Rumo and potential changes in control structures, but believed the stock's valuation at 6.3 times EBITDA was still decent, potentially rising to a high-single-digit range if the thesis of sustainable cash generation holds true in the medium to long term. For Localiza, the analyst suggested it's time to take profits after its recent climb, driven by increased depreciation of used vehicles expected to accelerate in the coming months and concerns over vehicle prices. With a valuation of 13 times estimated profit for 2027, which is at the top of the 7-14 times range the stock has traded since the depreciation cycle began, the risk asymmetry appears less attractive even in a scenario of lower interest rates. Despite acknowledging Localiza's best-in-class execution with improving ROICs, the analyst believed the company was well-positioned to benefit from lower interest rates and foreign currency flows in Brazil. The analyst noted that while a likely favorable election outcome for Flavio remains uncertain, 2027 perspectives are clouded by weak economic growth, a deteriorating credit cycle, and persistent inflation risks. JP Morgan sees the rental car segment as the best performer in 2027, with Motiva being the top pick for the sector due to its defensive business model and potential for additional growth from value creation initiatives. However, the analyst warned that Motiva may underperform other transportation stocks in the short term due to the election climate. JP Morgan stated it would not make further recommendation changes, preferring to wait for volatility to subside before evaluating the valuation levels these companies may reach. Technical factors could continue driving stock prices up, even with limited correlation to fundamentals. Rumo rose by about 1% early in the day, while Localiza fell by 6.1%, and the Ibovespa index dropped by 1%.",
  "summary": "O JP Morgan está ajustando algumas de suas recomendações no setor de transportes – elevando a Rumo de ‘neutro’ para ‘compra’ e rebaixando a Localiza de ‘compra’ para ‘neutro’. Essencialmente, o movimento tem a ver com a performance das duas ações após Flavio Bolsonaro sair na frente no primeiro turno.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}