{
  "id": 14117063,
  "title": "IMF upgrades 2026 world economic growth forecast",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-upgrades-2026-world-economic-growth-forecast",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-13T04:29:08.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "RTHK News - Finance",
    "slug": "rthk-news-finance",
    "url": "https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1873724-20261013.htm"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The International Monetary Fund has raised its outlook for global economic expansion in 2026, projecting a growth rate of 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July estimate. This increase is attributed to a surge in investments in artificial intelligence, which has helped offset the impact of the Middle East conflict on certain economies. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, titled \"Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,\" predicts a slowdown in global growth from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026, followed by a recovery to 3.4 percent in 2027, the latter figure remaining unchanged from the previous July forecast. The IMF describes the global economy as not simply slowing or accelerating but rather experiencing a reallocation of growth based on each country's vulnerability to the energy crisis sparked by the war and to demand driven by AI-related factors. Countries that are least dependent on energy imports and have strong ties to the AI hardware supply chain have shown the strongest growth. China, India, and other Asian nations have benefited from the AI boom, outpacing overall global trade growth. In contrast, energy importers with little connection to the technology sector, particularly low-income countries, face significant challenges, including higher import costs, weaker currencies, and reduced real incomes. The IMF assumes that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, will reopen in March, with conditions expected to return to pre-war levels by October. The closure of the strait would have cut global growth by 0.9 percentage points this year, with a net reduction of about 0.3 percentage points after accounting for supply responses. The IMF warns that oil inventories are dwindling to stress levels that could lead to sharp price increases. Oil prices are forecast to average $95.74 a barrel in 2026, up 41 percent from 2025, and $87.39 in 2027. U.S. GDP growth is projected to remain flat at 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2027, driven by consumption, fiscal policy, and technology investment. China's economy is expected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2026, down from 5 percent in 2025, but then slow to 4 percent in 2027. By contrast, India is once again projected to be the world's fastest-growing major economy, expanding at a 7 percent rate in 2026, down from 7.7 percent in 2025. Japan is forecast to grow by 0.7 percent, while Britain's growth is expected to be 1.3 percent. The euro area is anticipated to expand by 1.1 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027, reflecting weak consumer confidence. The IMF notes that growth is becoming increasingly concentrated, with just 32 economies now accounting for 95 percent of global growth, down from 54 in April. Roughly 47 percent of economies had their forecasts downgraded.",
  "summary": "The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday nudged its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July projection, as economies lifted by the artificial intelligence investment boom offset those hurt by the Middle East conflict. In its latest World Economic Outlook, titled \"Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,\" the IMF projected global growth slowing from 3.5…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 4,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Yonhap News",
        "title": "IMF raises S. Korea's growth forecast to 3.3 pct amid chip supercycle",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-raises-s-koreas-growth-forecast-to-3-3-pct-amid-chip-supercycle",
        "published": "2026-10-13T02:00:07.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Economic Times - Economy",
        "title": "IMF sees India bucking global slowdown, raises 2026 growth forecast to 7%",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-sees-india-bucking-global-slowdown-raises-2026-growth-forecast-to",
        "published": "2026-10-13T02:01:23.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Times of India",
        "title": "India's economic story in fast lane, IMF projects 7% GDP growth for FY26 and FY27",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/indias-economic-story-in-fast-lane-imf-projects-7-gdp-growth-for-fy26",
        "published": "2026-10-13T03:23:02.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}