{
  "id": 14112558,
  "title": "IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-but-war-and-debt-14112558",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-13T03:39:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Channel News Asia",
    "slug": "channel-news-asia",
    "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/imf-ai-investment-global-economic-growth-outlook-6454666"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a slight increase from the 3.0% forecast in July. The growth is largely attributed to strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, benefiting countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand. However, the outlook faces mounting risks, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, fiscal deterioration, and extreme weather events, which could tilt the risks to the downside.\n\nThe World Economic Outlook, released during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, is on par with the most optimistic scenario from April but falls short of the 3.5% growth projected for 2025. For 2027, the IMF forecasts a steady global growth rate of 3.4%, maintaining the July projection and a 0.2% increase from April.\n\nWhile the global economy has proven resilient, the IMF's chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, highlights the strain on resilience due to several downside risks. These include a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which could intensify inflation and slow growth, a worsening fiscal outlook, reassessment of AI profitability, and severe weather events. Countries have shown quick mitigation to the oil price shock by drawing down reserves, substituting energy sources, and reducing oil demand. Despite these measures, global growth would have dipped to 2.5% this year, but their impact is waning as the conflict persists.\n\nThe IMF notes a growing divide between countries benefiting from AI and those left behind. Only 32 countries account for 95% of global growth, compared to 54 countries in April. Downward growth revisions have become more common, with the IMF reducing forecasts for 47% of economies since the April forecasts, including several energy-importing nations outside the AI value chain. Gulf countries directly affected by the US-Israeli war with Iran are particularly hard hit, with Saudi Arabia's GDP now expected to decline by 3.3% in 2026, down from the previous July forecast of 1.7%. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are also forecast to experience deep recessions, with contractions of 7.6%, 16%, 16.7%, 15.6%, and 3.9% in 2026, respectively. Among major economies, the US is projected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while the Eurozone's growth is upgraded to 1.1% in 2026 from 0.9% in July due to stronger AI investment and higher defence spending.\n\nChina's growth is also forecasted to be down slightly, with 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, both a 0.1% decrease from the July predictions. These revisions are attributable to higher oil prices exacerbating weak domestic demand despite robust exports. India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with forecasts of 7.0% growth for both 2026 and 2027, up 0.6% this year and 0.3% next year due to robust domestic demand and services activity.\n\nThe surge in AI investment is expected to keep upward pressure on prices, with global headline consumer price inflation forecast at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% for 2027. IMF participants at the Bangkok meetings will assess a precarious outlook, assuming the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 with a broad return to pre-war shipping conditions by October 2027. The IMF also assumes an average oil price of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $87 in 2027. However, in an adverse scenario where the war leads to oil prices rising to $130 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, growth would be reduced by 0.2% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, with inflation surging to 5.2% in 2027. The report emphasizes the significant uncertainty surrounding AI, with potential upside and downside risks. Under a scenario of faster AI adoption and accelerated investment, global GDP could rise by 0.6% by 2029, primarily benefiting the US and China. Conversely, if AI productivity gains fail to materialize, leading to a sharp decline in investment, the US GDP could fall by 0.8%, causing spillovers to Asian technology exporters that could impact global GDP by up to 0.4% by 2028. This shift could also trigger a sharp reduction in asset prices and tighter financial conditions, causing a major drop in consumption, particularly for AI-related sectors.",
  "summary": "The IMF is forecasting 2026 global growth at 3.1 per cent, a slight uptick from the 3.0 per cent it predicted in July.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 5,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Investing.com",
        "title": "IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-but-war-and-debt",
        "published": "2026-10-13T02:18:27.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Bangkok Post",
        "title": "IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-but-war-and-debt-14102368",
        "published": "2026-10-13T02:26:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Al-Monitor",
        "title": "IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-but-war-and-debt-14103366",
        "published": "2026-10-13T02:46:27.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "CNA - Business",
        "title": "IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/13/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-but-war-and-debt-14110908",
        "published": "2026-10-13T03:39:00.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}