{
  "id": 13946896,
  "title": "LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 12 Oct",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/12/latam-and-africa-prediction-markets-week-of-12-oct",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-12T09:42:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Rio Times",
    "slug": "the-rio-times",
    "url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/latam-africa-prediction-markets-week-of-12-oct-2026/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Most trading activity this week occurred in Brazil's presidential election, with Polymarket processing $8.6 million in wagers. Flávio Bolsonaro was favored at 86.7% to win the October 25 runoff, as opposed to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 12.5%. Trump's endorsement of Bolsonaro caused a significant shift in market odds, dropping from 54.5% to 21.5%, marking the biggest one-week move on the board.\n\nIn South Africa, odds of annual inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026 increased from 38.7% to 68.2%. Mexican central bank interest rate odds changed from a 95% certainty of holding rates in November to 74.5%, while a 25 basis point cut saw a rise from 2.1% to 19.7%. Brazil's Selic interest rate cut odds also shifted, moving from 73.0% to 86.5%.\n\nEthiopia's odds of Eritrea invading by December 31 rose from 21.0% to 32.5%. Ethereum and Eritrea's odds of invading each other changed from 21.0% to 32.5% and from 9.0% to 19.0%, respectively, over a week. The odds of Nicolás Maduro being found guilty on all counts decreased from 37.0% to 26.5%, while the prison sentence bucket rose from 23.0% to 32.0%.\n\nUS strike odds on Colombia increased from 13.5% to 22.5%. Overall, the largest volume traded was on Brazilian and Ethiopian invasion odds at $91,000 and $34,600 respectively, while other markets saw smaller volumes, indicating a general drift in sentiment rather than a specific event driving the changes.",
  "summary": "Brazil’s Trump-endorsement odds halved in a week, South Africa’s inflation bets jumped and Ethiopia-Eritrea war odds rose. See what traders expect next. The post LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 12 Oct appeared first on The Rio Times .",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}