{
  "id": 13931209,
  "title": "The Commodities Feed: Oil lower despite Middle East escalation",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/12/the-commodities-feed-oil-lower-despite-middle-east-escalation",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-12T10:00:29.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Hellenic Shipping News",
    "slug": "hellenic-shipping-news",
    "url": "https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the-commodities-feed-oil-lower-despite-middle-east-escalation/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Oil prices experienced a decline on Monday, despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. ICE Brent had dipped over 2% at its lowest point, even though the Houthis attacked an airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The attack on energy infrastructure would have likely caused a more significant price reaction. However, the present move in oil appears to be driven by factors other than the Middle East, particularly Russia. President Donald Trump concluded a deal with Russia to export 300kt of diesel immediately, followed by 500kt in November and 1mt in December. This, along with the temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel, has put some pressure on the gasoil crack. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine agreed on an energy ceasefire, which may also impact the market. However, the ceasefire's sustainability remains uncertain, as Ukraine and Russia must confirm it. With the US midterm elections approaching, there is increasing pressure on Trump to address rising oil and diesel prices. Nonetheless, normalisation of Middle East oil flows and trade flows are necessary for more substantial reductions in refined product prices. On the speculative side, managed money is reducing its net long position in ICE Brent, which has traded above $100/bbl. Despite Brent trading above this level and the midterms being near, it may not be wise to take on significant risk from the long side. The USDA's monthly WASDE report revealed a more bearish outlook for US corn production, increasing its 2026/27 forecast by 234m bushels to 16.03bn bushels. This led to a decrease in US ending stocks estimates and CBOT corn prices. The global balance also saw an increase in ending stocks estimates for 2026/27. The US soybean market numbers indicated a better-supplied market, with production estimated at 4,562m bushels. Global soybean balances also showed minor changes. Finally, the wheat outlook suggests a relatively better-supplied US market, with wheat ending stock estimates increasing by 23m bushels to 740m bushels.",
  "summary": "Energy – Middle distillate cracks trade lower on Trump diesel deal After a weekend of escalation in the Middle East and the risk of the conflict broadening, one would think oil prices would be trading firmer this morning. However, this is not the case. ICE Brent has been down more than 2% at one stage ...",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}