{
  "id": 13858039,
  "title": "Australian Dollar edges higher to near 0.7000 on weak US Sentiment",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/11/australian-dollar-edges-higher-to-near-0-7000-on-weak-us-sentiment",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-11T23:44:14.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-higher-to-near-07000-on-weak-us-sentiment-202610112344"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Australian Dollar (AUD) showed mild gains against the US Dollar (USD) in the early Asian session on Monday, reaching a level near 0.7000. This move was influenced by weak US Consumer Sentiment, which put downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) relative to the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will be closely monitoring the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings scheduled for Tuesday. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for October showed a decline to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, falling short of the market's expectation of 47.6. However, inflation expectations based on this index have risen, suggesting a likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve rate hike during their upcoming meeting. The odds of a Fed rate hike of at least 25 bps this month have decreased to 17.7%, down from 24.4% a week prior, according to CME Fedwatch. Investors now anticipate an 84.1% probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's meeting in December. In the Australian Dollar (AUD) context, traders have reduced their expectations of the RBA hiking interest rates during the November policy meeting, following the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which aligned with forecasts. Former RBA board member Ian Harper suggested that another rate hike this year is plausible but not guaranteed. Money markets now predict a 20% chance of a rate hike at the RBA's meeting in early November. Strategists at OCBC noted that consecutive days of solid 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions indicate a level where buyers are stepping in, helping to stabilize the interest rate environment after recent volatility. They pointed out that Treasury volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, was the primary driver of recent global rate fluctuations before being overshadowed by issues in French government bonds. Looking ahead, OCBC believes that a sustained decline in the MOVE index could help maintain the stability of risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD and emerging market (EM) carry trades, potentially preventing a more significant sell-off. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) speech by Michelle Musalem exhibited a hawkish tone, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 7.3 out of 10, slightly higher than the 7.2 historical average. Her comments highlighted the need for further monetary policy tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% target and indicated that the economy is \"pretty strong\" with a balanced and stable job market. These remarks underscore a preference for additional rate hikes, even though Musalem claimed to approach meetings with an open mind. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slightly decreased to 138.33, indicating a minor reduction in perceived hawkishness, although the Fed remains hawkish overall, as indicated by the index being well above the neutral 100 mark. AUD/USD is currently experiencing a bearish near-term sentiment, as the price remains below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands' middle SMA. The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 40.9, below the midline, indicating a potential for further downside without being oversold. The lower Bollinger band at 0.6889 serves as the next volatility floor beneath the market. On the upside, initial resistance is identified at the Bollinger middle band around 0.7020, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7045, a level that needs to be re-established to alleviate the current bearish sentiment. A more distant hurdle lies at the upper Bollinger band near 0.7155. On the downside, the nearest structural support is found at the lower Bollinger band at 0.6890. A break below this level could trigger a deeper decline, while staying above it suggests a consolidation within the ongoing downtrend.",
  "summary": "The AUD/USD pair trades with mild gains around 0.6985 during the early Asian session on Monday. Softening US Consumer Sentiment weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 7,
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  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}