{
  "id": 13453405,
  "title": "The Ostrich Effect: How Optimism Bias Contributes to Project Failure",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/10/the-ostrich-effect-how-optimism-bias-contributes-to-project-failure",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-10-10T13:00:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "HackerNoon",
    "slug": "hackernoon",
    "url": "https://hackernoon.com/the-ostrich-effect-how-optimism-bias-contributes-to-project-failure?source=rss"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Ostrich Effect: Why Smart People Avoid Bad News in Project Management\n\nDr. Atif Ansar discusses the concept of the \"Ostrich Effect\" in his podcast, Brains Byte Back. The term refers to the tendency of intelligent individuals, particularly entrepreneurs, to avoid negative information that could impact their projects. Dr. Ansar, a researcher at Oxford University, explains that his own experience studying the failure of big dams led him to recognize this common human behavior.\n\nWhen he initially set out to prove that dams were a smart investment for developing countries, Dr. Ansar expected the data to support his positive outlook. However, the numbers revealed the opposite outcome: budgets doubled, timelines stretched, and projects failed to meet expectations. Despite his academic training to approach the data objectively, Dr. Ansar admitted that he almost wanted to ignore the unfavorable results.\n\nThis emotional neutrality is a crucial factor in the Ostrich Effect. Dr. Ansar notes that even those trained to stay objective can succumb to this tendency, making it challenging for everyone else. To illustrate his point, he cites a study of 16,000 megaprojects, including dams, railways, Olympics, and space missions. The results consistently showed that projects exceeded budgets, ran late, and delivered less than promised, often failing to meet all three targets simultaneously.\n\nThe reason behind this phenomenon lies in the optimism bias that entrepreneurs possess. Entrepreneurs are naturally inclined to believe that \"if I don't see it, the risk doesn't exist.\" This bias is a form of the credit card statement that people often refuse to open after an expensive trip, avoiding the uncomfortable truth.\n\nDr. Ansar emphasizes that founders are particularly susceptible to this bias due to their inherent optimism. This optimism, while motivating, can blind entrepreneurs to the real state of their projects. To combat the Ostrich Effect, Dr. Ansar advises founders to question positive metrics and focus on addressing red metrics that indicate potential issues. By doing so, they can catch themselves in the act of avoiding bad news and find a more accurate baseline for their project's performance.",
  "summary": "Oxford researcher Atif Ansar explains how the ostrich effect and optimism bias cause teams to ignore project risks, and what founders can do differently.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}