{
  "id": 132616,
  "title": "Why targeting guerrilla groups and cartels doesn’t stop violence in Latin America – but focusing on geography might",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/04/why-targeting-guerrilla-groups-and-cartels-doesnt-stop-violence-in",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-08-04T12:32:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Conversation",
    "slug": "the-conversation",
    "url": "https://theconversation.com/why-targeting-guerrilla-groups-and-cartels-doesnt-stop-violence-in-latin-america-but-focusing-on-geography-might-283101"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Recent research suggests that targeting guerrilla groups and cartels may not effectively reduce violence in Latin America, as geography and environmental factors may play a more significant role. A study analyzing homicide patterns across Colombian municipalities between 2010 and 2020 found that environmental features and geographic factors, such as coca cultivation, gold mining, and transportation corridors, were significant predictors of local murder rates, independent of the presence of armed actors like FARC and ELN. Homicide hotspots primarily occurred in Colombia's western corridor, where illicit economic resources and transportation corridors overlap. Violent activity also experienced a spillover effect, influenced by conditions in neighboring municipalities, particularly related to coca production and mining activity. The findings challenge the belief that eliminating the \"head of the snake\" – high-profile criminal leaders – will lead to a reduction in bloodshed. Instead, they imply that addressing the underlying conditions driving criminal activity, such as illicit economic opportunities, may be more effective. Policymakers should focus on strategies like crop substitution programs, job creation, and security measures along trafficking corridors, rather than solely targeting offenders after violence erupts. Further research could explore these patterns at more localized levels and apply the framework to other Latin American countries to determine if environmental factors predict homicide rates consistently across different contexts.",
  "summary": "Study suggests long-practiced strategy of taking out the heads of drug cartels may be missing underlying predictors of crime.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}