{
  "id": 13178617,
  "title": "Donald Trump's Home State at Risk of Flipping as Florida Races Tighten",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/09/donald-trumps-home-state-at-risk-of-flipping-as-florida-races-tighten",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-09T18:22:06.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Newsweek",
    "slug": "newsweek",
    "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/florida-at-risk-of-flipping-as-races-tighten-12548554"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Florida's political landscape is heating up as the state inches closer to the November election. The Republican party's home turf, where Donald Trump enjoyed a significant lead in 2024, now finds itself in a tight race. A St. Pete Polls survey has found Republican Florida Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly deadlocked at 45 percent in the battle for governor. Donalds holds a slight edge, 45.1 percent to Jolly's 45.0 percent, with 7 percent of voters still undecided and 4 percent opting for a different candidate. The undecided voters are dwindling, with Donalds and Jolly each gaining around a percentage point since the mid-September survey. Most of Jolly's lead comes from independent voters, who now prefer him 49 percent to Donalds 33 percent, compared to 12 percent in September. Another Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo shows Jolly leading independents 47 percent to 28 percent. Crossover voting also favors Jolly, with 15 percent of Republicans backing him and 9 percent of Democrats considering Donalds. Younger voters lean heavily towards Jolly, with 62 percent of those under 30 supporting him compared to Donalds 17 percent. However, seniors are more likely to vote for Donalds, backing him 64 percent to 30 percent. Hispanic voters, who have been a strong supporter of the Republican party in Florida since 2024, favor Jolly 54 percent to 38 percent. Black voters back Jolly 65 percent to 14 percent, while white voters lean to Donalds 53 percent to 37 percent. Regionally, Jolly leads in the Tampa market, his home base, as well as in Orlando and Miami, while Donalds takes the lead in West Palm Beach, Jacksonville, and Fort Myers. The governor's race has remained relatively stable in St. Pete Polls' surveys, but the undecided pool is shrinking. Donalds and Jolly have both gained about a percentage point since the pollster's mid-September survey. Most of Jolly's edge comes from independent voters, whose support has grown from 12 points in September to 49 percent in the current poll. A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo shows Jolly leading among independents 47 percent to 28 percent. Crossover voting also tilts Jolly's way, with 15 percent of Republicans saying they'll back him and 9 percent of Democrats considering Donalds. Despite Jolly's lead among independents, he still keeps about four in five of his own party's voters. Both Donalds and Jolly have secured endorsements from various figures, with Donalds receiving support from Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited. Jolly, on the other hand, has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and has not yet agreed to a debate with Donalds. Donalds has raised over $135 million through September 30, while Jolly's total is significantly less. The race for U.S. Senate remains tight as well, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio's former appointee, Ashley Moody, and Democrat Angie Nixon locked in a tight contest. Moody, who serves the final two years of Rubio's term, leads Republicans 82 percent to Nixon's 83 percent. Independents favor Nixon 49 percent to 36 percent. Among younger voters, Nixon leads among those under 30 (66 percent to 24 percent) and 30 to 49 (54 percent to 35 percent). However, Moody holds an edge among seniors, leading 66 percent to 30 percent. The gender gap has reversed in this poll, with men leaning towards Nixon and women towards Moody. Despite these tight races, both parties remain optimistic. Donalds has the financial advantage, raising more than $135 million, while Jolly has raised significantly less. Both Donalds and Jolly have received endorsements from Trump and DeSantis, respectively, and Trump has promised to hold two rallies for Donalds before the election. Jolly, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, has not yet agreed to a debate with Donalds. Historically, Florida has been a swing state, with Democrats often underestimating Republican support in recent years. Polls have historically underestimated Republicans, with notable examples in 2018 and 2022 where major pollsters predicted close races, but Republicans ultimately won by narrow margins.",
  "summary": "Florida, a GOP stronghold Trump won by 13 points in 2024, shows Byron Donalds and David Jolly tied at 45 percent for governor.",
  "key_points": [
    "Independent voters favor David Jolly 49% to 33% for Byron Donalds.",
    "Younger voters, under 30, strongly support David Jolly 62% to 17% for Byron Donalds."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}