{
  "id": 13085523,
  "title": "The Battle of Hormuz Is Won. Now Comes the Insurgency Phase",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/09/the-battle-of-hormuz-is-won-now-comes-the-insurgency-phase",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-09T09:40:10.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Newsweek",
    "slug": "newsweek",
    "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/battle-hormuz-won-now-insurgency-phase-12545451"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The United States has effectively won the Battle of Hormuz, preventing Iran from using the strait to control oil exports. However, a new insurgency phase looms. Iran's drones, missiles, and proxies continue their attacks on tankers, making the crossing costly and uncertain. The American naval mission, serving as an occupation, cannot fully depart as normalcy has not returned. Kpler estimates that 40 percent of the region's crude now passes without crossing the strait, either through Saudi and Emirati pipelines or ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center reported that five merchant ships, including tankers and liquefied natural gas carriers, were struck by drones or unidentified projectiles in the strait between October 3 and 6, causing injuries to twelve crew members. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps radioed a sixth vessel, demanding it turn back or face attack, which it did. The threat in the strait is now rated as severe. Despite these attacks, the region's total exports remain relatively stable, as the new system reroutes traffic. Iran cannot stop the flow of oil; instead, it can tax it, causing damage to ships, detours, and freight costs that analysts expect to keep delivered prices high until the threat recedes. Iran's strategy has shifted from intense hostilities to a long-term, attritional struggle, contesting the strait with more aggressive attacks and disrupting regional flows. The U.S. is not looking for a return to full-scale hostilities but is prepared for a low-level maritime war. Analysts say Iran is adaptable and innovative, capable of continuing this battle indefinitely, much like their insurgency in Iraq. The U.S. has found a temporary workaround to address oil exports, but not LNG, helium, fertilizer, or container shipping.",
  "summary": "Gulf crude exports outside Iran are back at prewar levels. Tehran can no longer bottle them up. But it doesn’t need to.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}