{
  "id": 13004299,
  "title": "WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/09/wto-hikes-2026-trade-growth-forecast-on-ai-boom",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-09T02:02:55.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "RTHK News - Finance",
    "slug": "rthk-news-finance",
    "url": "https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1873221-20261009.htm"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly increased its forecast for global trade growth in 2026, citing the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and supply chain adaptations as key drivers. Merchandise trade is now projected to grow by 3.9 percent this year, up from the initial estimate of 1.9 percent in March. The WTO predicts a further increase to 4.1 percent growth in 2027, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.6 percent.\n\nWTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala explained that the resilience of the global economy and a rules-based trading system enabled essential products to continue flowing despite disruptions. She noted that an integrated world economy allows for smoother trade even when confronted with challenges. However, some regions, such as the Middle East, have been hit harder, with export performance expected to remain weak and the Middle East facing a sharp contraction of 17.2 percent.\n\nDespite these regional disparities, the WTO highlighted that supply chains successfully adapted to disruptions in energy, fertiliser, and transport markets caused by the Iran war. Global container traffic even increased by 3.9 percent during the first seven months of 2026. Strong demand linked to AI investment helped offset the negative effects of the conflict, with global crude oil exports falling by only about six percent and liquefied natural gas exports dropping by one percent.\n\nThe surge in AI investment accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with a 67 percent year-on-year increase in trade for semiconductors, servers, and other equipment essential to AI. WTO chief economist Robert Staiger emphasized that while the Middle East conflict did not reduce trade as much as feared, a slowdown in AI investment could lead to a slowdown in trade overall. He noted that Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth at 9.9 percent, followed by North America at 5.7 percent, while Europe is projected to see weak export performance, down 0.1 percent, and the Middle East to experience a sharp decline of 17.2 percent.",
  "summary": "The WTO on Thursday sharply raised its global trade growth forecast for 2026, with merchandise trade riding the AI boom and proving more resilient than expected amid the Middle East crisis. Thanks to supply chain adaptations and the surge in artificial intelligence investments, the World Trade Organization now projects 3.9 percent growth in the volume of merchandise trade this year, up from the…",
  "key_points": [
    "WTO raises 2026 trade growth forecast to 3.9% from 1.9%",
    "AI boom and supply chain adaptations drive growth",
    "Middle East faces sharp 17.2% export contraction"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The upgraded trade forecasts signal a boost for economies reliant on AI investment and adaptable supply chains, but also highlight ongoing disparities and vulnerabilities for regions like the Middle East.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}