{
  "id": 12890877,
  "title": "Märkte Insight: Wann die Gewinner am Aktienmarkt zu Verlierern werden",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/08/markte-insight-wann-die-gewinner-am-aktienmarkt-zu-verlierern-werden",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-08T14:54:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Handelsblatt",
    "slug": "handelsblatt",
    "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/kolumnen/geldanlage-wann-die-gewinner-am-aktienmarkt-zu-verlierern-werden/100260021.html"
  },
  "original_language": "de",
  "account": "Investing in US stocks can seem simple: Since January, setting money on previously strong US stocks has often beaten the market - once again. Over the long term, the so-called momentum strategy impresses with its returns. However, in every economic environment, betting on rising stocks has not always paid off, according to a long-term analysis of the US provider S&P. Momentum stocks have a weakness. The \"S&P 500 Momentum Index\" consists of US stocks from the S&P 500 index that have risen particularly strongly in the past twelve months. The approach comes into play from early January to the end of September at nearly 28 percent in dollars. The strategy's success in this year is no exception. Over the past ten years, the momentum index has outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of five percentage points per year. Even over three and five years, the approach has been ahead. But the bet does not always pay off. The S&P provider has evaluated how various factor strategies, including the momentum approach, have performed for US stocks in past decades under different market conditions. The evaluation differentiated between phases of US growth and falling US growth (measured by the Composite Leading Indicator of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD) and between rising and falling US inflation. The result: The \"S&P 500 Momentum Index\" has outperformed the S&P 500 by three percentage points per year on average from mid-1995 to mid-2026 and led in three of four possible market regimes. However, in phases of declining growth and rising inflation - typically difficult stock market phases - the momentum strategy lagged behind the market. The S&P 500 fell on average by ten percent per year, while the trend-following index fell by 13 percent. \"A combination of declining growth and rising inflation could lead investors to shift their focus from growth-oriented stocks to more defensive stocks,\" the authors write. This shift could result in the underperformance of momentum stocks. Is the trend changing? Such changes naturally harm the approach. \"Momentum strategies have a particular problem when a trend breaks,\" explains Ali Masarwah, CEO of the investment platform Envestor. Despite the US economy appearing remarkably robust, investors should be aware of the risk of momentum strategies. Whether the US economy continues to grow depends primarily on whether tech giants meet steadily rising expectations and how long the Iran war lasts. The US inflation, which in August was markedly above the two percent target rate set by the US central bank, should also serve as a warning sign: Aim for data that outperforms the index - a good quantum ETF.",
  "summary": "Börsenfonds, die auf starke Titel der vergangenen Monate setzen, schlagen den Gesamtmarkt meistens. Doch es gibt eine Ausnahme, die zu Vorsicht mahnt, weiß Martin Müller.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}