{
  "id": 12888809,
  "title": "Global trade is booming, despite the Middle East crisis – here’s what’s driving it",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/08/global-trade-is-booming-despite-the-middle-east-crisis-heres-whats",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-10-08T14:36:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "IOL",
    "slug": "iol",
    "url": "https://iol.co.za/business/economy/2026-10-08-global-trade-is-booming-despite-the-middle-east-crisis-heres-whats-driving-it/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The World Trade Organization (WTO) has elevated its global trade growth forecast for 2026, crediting the AI boom and supply chain adaptations for the surge. Merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year, up from the previous projection of 1.9 percent in March. The WTO anticipates a further increase to 4.1 percent in 2027, a notable improvement from the earlier 2.6 percent forecast seven months ago.\n\nWTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala attributes these figures to the resilience of the integrated global economy and the rules-based trading system, which maintain the flow of essential products to businesses and households despite disruptions. However, the organization acknowledges that some entities have been more severely impacted by the Middle East crisis, particularly those reliant on energy supplies and key fertilizers.\n\nDespite challenges, the WTO notes that most economies outside the region have managed to adapt their supply chains effectively to disruptions in energy, fertilizer, and transport markets due to the Iran war. A significant driver of this resilience has been the surge in spending on semiconductors, servers, and other equipment crucial for AI development. Year-on-year, semiconductor trade saw a whopping 67 percent increase in the first half of 2026, accounting for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. This growth in AI-enabling goods has been instrumental in propelling overall trade expansion, building on a strong trajectory already seen in 2024 and 2025.\n\nThe WTO predicts a further 30 percent rise in global spending on AI infrastructure this year, with investments expected to grow by an additional 10 to 20 percent in 2027. However, the organization stresses that trade resilience is not uniform, with services trade and some regions experiencing heightened exposure to the conflict's repercussions.",
  "summary": "Global trade is proving more resilient than expected, with the WTO sharply raising its 2026 forecast as AI investment and supply-chain adaptations offset Middle East disruptions.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}