{
  "id": 12786823,
  "title": "WMO: El Niño set to reach record strength by December",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/08/wmo-el-nino-set-to-reach-record-strength-by-december",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-10-08T04:35:45.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "KBC",
    "slug": "kbc",
    "url": "https://www.kbc.co.ke/sea-surface-temperatures-reflect-strengthening-el-nino/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that a strengthening El Niño event is set to reach record levels between October and December 2026. This forecast, outlined in the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, indicates that El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its expected peak in December. The organization warns that this powerful climate phenomenon is likely to bring above-average temperatures worldwide and alter rainfall patterns, thereby heightening the risk of droughts and floods in various regions. The WMO attributes the forecasted sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to surge to unprecedented levels during October-November-December 2026, a trend that will significantly impact global weather patterns, economies, ecosystems, and communities. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that El Niño is robust and intensifying rapidly, forecasting a near-100 percent likelihood of its persistence through February 2027. This could potentially make it one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950, according to Saulo. The WMO's forecast is grounded on contributions from 13 national and international centers, utilizing real-time data from ocean buoys, satellites, and radiosondes. Saulo explained that El Niño releases heat stored in the ocean, a phenomenon that often results in record-breaking years, like 2024. The ocean from which El Niño draws its heat is currently the warmest ever measured, providing more heat for release into the atmosphere. In the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, known as the heart of El Niño, the Niño 3.4 index—a key indicator—rose from +1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August. For October-November-December, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is predicted to reach around +3.7°C, peaking near December, marking the highest level since records began and surpassing the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016. Other ocean regions, such as the Indian Ocean and the equatorial Atlantic, are also contributing to the seasonal outlook. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which can significantly affect rainfall around the Indian Ocean, is expected to peak in October before declining, with a seasonal anomaly of about +0.5°C forecast for October-December. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are projected to remain above normal.",
  "summary": "WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update provides temperature and rainfall predictions for October-December The post WMO: El Niño set to reach record strength by December appeared first on KBC Digital .",
  "key_points": [
    "El Niño set to reach record strength between October and December 2026",
    "Above-average temperatures and altered rainfall patterns expected worldwide"
  ],
  "editors_take": "A strengthening El Niño event reaching record levels will likely heighten the risk of droughts and floods globally, impacting economies, ecosystems, and communities, and marking one of the strongest events since at least 1950.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}