{
  "id": 12710404,
  "title": "ANALYSIS: We know the election poll numbers, but we can’t predict the turnout",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/07/analysis-we-know-the-election-poll-numbers-but-we-cant-predict-the",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-07T21:02:18.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Daily Maverick",
    "slug": "daily-maverick",
    "url": "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-10-07-elections/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Ahead of the local elections on November 4, various polls have produced vastly different results, making it impossible to predict the outcome in key metropolitan areas. For instance, in Johannesburg, a News24 SABI poll indicates over 29% of voters intend to support the Democratic Alliance (DA) compared to 23% for the African National Congress (ANC), while a Social Research Foundation/Common Sense Media poll shows the DA at 42% and the ANC at 19%. Ipsos, however, suggests the ANC's support is at 31% and the DA at 29%.\n\nThe discrepancy in these polls highlights the critical importance of voter turnout in this election. Winter, when the ANC has historically suffered from complaints about service delivery, may have influenced this year's election, which is also held in November due to the pandemic. However, there is no load shedding this time, yet frequent power cuts persist in many areas.\n\nAdditionally, the frustration felt during winter might diminish as the weather on election day varies from place to place. Suburban polling stations often experience longer queues in the morning, while township areas tend to have longer queues in the afternoon. Given that poorer individuals are often more vulnerable to the elements, they may choose not to endure long, hot lines on a public holiday.\n\nThe fractured political landscape also plays a role in voter sentiment, as a vote against the status quo may now be directed towards opposing parties. By-elections, which have gained attention lately, typically attract low voter turnout. Consequently, parties that have made gains during by-elections might lose some of their previous victories. Furthermore, the fragmented nature of politics could result in unexpected outcomes, such as a rural community's strong ANC candidate facing off against a powerful SACP opponent, potentially allowing a third party to win.\n\nLastly, unforeseen events, such as debates or incidents related to race, ethnicity, corruption, or strikes, could significantly impact the election results. Thus, predicting the outcome remains a daunting task, with numerous factors contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming local elections.",
  "summary": "With a variety of polls coming to very different conclusions ahead of the local elections, there is no clear, predictable outcome in many important metros. This means it may be vital to examine the factors that could drive turnout on 4 November to examine what impact they could have on who will hold power in places like Joburg, eThekwini and Tshwane.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}