{
  "id": 127029,
  "title": "Canadian Dollar: Trade surplus seen narrowing – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/04/canadian-dollar-trade-surplus-seen-narrowing-td-securities",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-04T11:13:38.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-surplus-seen-narrowing-td-securities-202608041113"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities analysts anticipate Canada's International Merchandise Trade surplus to diminish in June due to the impact of falling oil prices on energy exports. They anticipate a surplus of $2.5bn, in contrast to market projections of $3.0bn and the previous month's $4.2bn. Non-energy exports, particularly automobiles and manufacturing, are expected to counterbalance the decline from the energy sector, while surging imports will contribute to a smaller surplus. The international merchandise surplus is projected to fall to $2.5bn in June (market: $3.0bn) from $4.2bn in the preceding month as oil exports suffer significantly due to the large decline in crude oil prices. Although oil prices dropped by around 15% in June, early indications from US imports suggest a more gradual decline, hinting at a potential recovery in real energy exports following their 4% decrease in May. Non-energy exports are anticipated to mitigate the energy-related decline, backed by a further strengthening in auto production alongside revised estimates indicating a 2.2% rise in non-energy manufacturing sales in June. Stronger imports will also play a role in reducing the trade deficit, and the overall trade balance is projected to show a smaller decline, thanks to the alleviation of the energy price drag.",
  "summary": "TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s International Merchandise Trade surplus to narrow in June as weaker Oil prices weigh on energy exports. They forecast a surplus of $2.5bn versus the market’s $3.0bn and May’s $4.2bn.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar despite mixed German data",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/03/euro-strengthens-against-canadian-dollar-despite-mixed-german-data",
        "published": "2026-08-03T08:54:02.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}