{
  "id": 12592064,
  "title": "Polish Zloty: NBP cautious as inflation overshoots – Commerzbank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/07/polish-zloty-nbp-cautious-as-inflation-overshoots-commerzbank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-07T09:05:20.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-nbp-cautious-as-inflation-overshoots-commerzbank-202610070905"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose has stated that Poland's National Bank (NBP) is expected to maintain its base rate at 3.75% in October. This expectation is based on insights from Thursday's press conference. Several members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believe there is potential for rate hikes if projections demonstrate inflation surpassing 4% in the upcoming year. Despite the increasing Consumer Price Index (CPI) and stronger underlying momentum, the NBP's more relaxed approach is seen as exerting pressure on the Polish Zloty (PLN) unless there is a change in rhetoric. Poland's National Bank (NBP) is set to announce its monetary policy decision for October later in the day, with consensus predicting the base rate will remain unchanged at 3.75%. The most anticipated aspect of the press conference will be whether NBP Governor Adam Glapinski will officially signal that rate hikes may be on the horizon. Discussions regarding potential rate hikes have already begun among MPC members. Ludwik Kotecki, for instance, anticipates a discussion on rate hikes in October, although it is unlikely that any decision will be made at that time. He sees November's updated macroeconomic projections as the basis for a possible 25 basis point increase in interest rates, should inflation projections exceed the 4% target. The recently released inflation data supports this shift in perspective. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 4% year-over-year in September, up from 3.4% in August. However, to fully understand the inflation situation, the seasonally-adjusted month-over-month increase is calculated at 0.62%. Underlying inflation momentum has thus resumed its acceleration beyond the target. When compared to the Czech Republic, the situation is telling. While the Czech National Bank (CNB) expects to raise rates in November due to less inflationary momentum, the NBP appears inclined to wait for projections and endure the inflation overshoot if necessary. The NBP's easier monetary stance will continue to put pressure on the zloty exchange rate unless there is a significant shift in tone on Thursday.",
  "summary": "Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is expected to keep its base rate at 3.75% in October, with guidance from Thursday’s press conference key. Several MPC members now see scope for rate hikes if projections show inflation above 4% next year.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Polish Zloty: Downtrend eyes 4.48 on firm support – Societe Generale",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/07/polish-zloty-downtrend-eyes-4-48-on-firm-support-societe-generale",
        "published": "2026-10-07T11:11:35.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}