{
  "id": 12479224,
  "title": "NZ election poll watch: Opportunity holds as potential kingmaker in tight race",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/nz-election-poll-watch-opportunity-holds-as-potential-kingmaker-in",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-06T21:57:34.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Conversation AU",
    "slug": "the-conversation-au",
    "url": "https://theconversation.com/nz-election-poll-watch-opportunity-holds-as-potential-kingmaker-in-tight-race-293706"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "A month before New Zealand's election on November 7, two polls gave the left coalition a narrow lead over the right. The Reid Research poll, conducted from September 24 to October 1, showed Labour at 30.8%, National at 25.9%, Greens at 14.8%, NZ First at 10.6%, ACT at 9.0%, Opportunity at 5.5%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2.0%. Combining the left parties' votes against the right's gave the left a 2.1-point lead. Opportunity's 5.5% vote share is just above the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary entry. However, the non-aligned party could hold the balance of power between the left and right blocs if elected. Both polls showed the right holding a three-point lead from the previous Reid poll. National leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins had record-low net favorability scores. The Verian poll, conducted from October 1 to 5, showed National at 29%, Labour at 28%, the Greens at 16%, NZ First at 10%, ACT at 9%, Opportunity at 7%, and Te Pāti Māori at 0.6%. Luxon ruled out working with Opportunity over the land tax policy. The overall picture, as seen in the graph of right and left bloc leads in polls since July, shows Opportunity holding the balance of power.",
  "summary": "One poll gives the left bloc its first lead in any poll since June, but another has the right bloc still in front. Opportunity has an opportunity.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}