{
  "id": 12392087,
  "title": "Konjunktur: Der Schein vom Aufschwung: Diese Zahlen zeigen, wie schwach die Substanz der deutschen Wirtschaft ist",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/konjunktur-der-schein-vom-aufschwung-diese-zahlen-zeigen-wie-schwach",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-06T13:57:32.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Handelsblatt",
    "slug": "handelsblatt",
    "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutsche-wirtschaft-hat-trotz-aufschwung-nur-schwache-substanz/100259722.html"
  },
  "original_language": "de",
  "account": "Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU) finally had the opportunity to provide a glimmer of hope on Tuesday. The chancellor convened leading economic organizations, including the heads of the German Industry and Commerce Chamber (DIHK), the Federation of German Trade Federations (ZDH), the German Industry Association (BDI), and the German Employers' Federations (BDA). Chancellor Merz eagerly anticipated the government's presentation of the new economic growth forecast on Thursday. According to the government's prediction, the German economy would experience growth in 2023, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 1.3 percent this year and 1.1 percent next year. Productive capacity had doubled. Trade exports were surprisingly strong, growing by 3.7 percent and 2.1 percent. The high government spending on defense and infrastructure also played a role in boosting the economy. These short-term numbers initially emerged from a report by the news agency Reuters. However, the forecast was not solely based on these short-term assessments. The Economic Ministry also considered the German economy's potential output if all enterprises were operating at full capacity and without any exceptional events. The results were less favorable. The productive potential of the German economy was projected to be only 0.5 percent per year on average between 2025 and 2031, according to the Handelsblatt. This represented a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the average rate between 1996 and 2025. Therefore, the brief economic recovery driven by exports and government spending this year and next year does not indicate a return to Germany's economic strength. The overall framework conditions were weak. Additionally, there were concerns about demand for German production, particularly due to increasing competition from China in key sectors such as automobiles and steel. The year 2028 would see the government expect a 0.6 percent growth in the GDP, assuming that the one-time effects would largely diminish by then. This was the main topic of discussion between Chancellor Merz and the leading economic organizations. Merz was currently striving to determine which of his planned structural reforms, including changes to social security, bureaucracy, the labor market, and energy prices, could still be implemented following the recent election setbacks. Several of these reforms would target the three factors that constitute the productive potential: 1. Labor: Workforce shrinking The first factor was the workforce. Germany performed poorly on three counts. First, demographic changes meant that there were fewer workers to support an increasing number of retirees. Employment in Germany was expected to peak in 2027 and then decline permanently. Secondly, not only was the number of workers decreasing, but their average working hours were also declining. This was linked to the high part-time employment rate among women and the rising part-time employment among men. \"Read also: Nearly four million Germans want to reduce their working hours.\" Thirdly, immigration to Germany was declining significantly, partly because fewer Ukrainian refugees were arriving. At the same time, emigration was increasing. Overall, net immigration for the current year was projected at around 80,000 people. Around two weeks ago, the five leading economic institutes had presented a joint growth forecast on behalf of the Economic Ministry and had reached similar conclusions to the government's current projection. Regarding the workforce, they found that the potential was reduced annually by 0.2 percentage points in the coming years due to this factor, compared to a stable workforce. In the range of 2025 to 2031, this factor would lower the potential by 0.2 percentage points each year, according to the institute data. 2. Capital: Becoming obsolete The second factor was the capital stock. This was calculated by comparing German companies' investments in machinery, vehicles, buildings, software, research, and development with the depreciation, destruction, or replacement rates. The figures revealed the problem: Investments in Germany's capital stock were now only slightly higher than the depreciation rates, despite the high investment needs resulting from the digital and green transformations. In the institute's calculations, this factor would contribute only 0.3 percentage points to the productive potential between 2025 and 2031, compared to 0.5 percentage points between 1996 and 2025, and even more before that. 3. Technological progress: Minimal present The third factor was technological progress, or the efficiency of the economy. As it was difficult to measure, it was determined as the residual part of the productive potential: the portion not attributable to labor and capital was considered technological progress. There was hope that Germany could compensate for the shortcomings in labor and capital through advancements in digitalization, artificial intelligence, and automation. The institutes had only slightly upwardly revised the factor for technological progress between 2025 and 2031, contributing 0.5 percentage points to the productive potential, which was less than the 0.6 percentage points observed between 1996 and 2025. This change was partly due to data corrections elsewhere. The institutes estimated that technological progress would contribute 0.5 percentage points per year to the productive potential between 2025 and 2031, which was less than the 0.6 percentage points observed between 1996 and 2025. The reasons included the ongoing challenges faced by Germany in digitalization, artificial intelligence, and automation.",
  "summary": "Die neue Konjunkturprognose der Bundesregierung macht Hoffnung – nur nicht, wenn man genauer hinschaut. Aus drei Gründen trügen die neuen Wirtschaftszahlen.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}