{
  "id": 12366082,
  "title": "Canada’s Carney Has Higher Nobel Peace Odds Than Trump",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/canadas-carney-has-higher-nobel-peace-odds-than-trump",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-06T11:17:23.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Newsweek",
    "slug": "newsweek",
    "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/canada-carney-higher-nobel-peace-odds-trump-12528524"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "President Donald Trump has long harbored ambitions to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but this year, his chances appear to be more distant than ever. According to prediction markets, Trump's odds of winning the prestigious award are less than 1 percent, significantly lower than Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's probability of 2.6 percent. Despite Trump's effort to broker peace deals and claim the ending of eight wars, he ultimately lost the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Subsequently, the White House accused the Nobel Committee of prioritizing politics over peace over their decision to not award Trump the 2025 prize.\n\nThis year, Trump's chances of winning the award have notably fallen. Under his administration, there has been a military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro and strikes on Iran that have escalated a wider regional conflict. While the Norwegian Nobel Committee maintains a strict secrecy rule regarding official nominee records, leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan have suggested they submitted Trump's name for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. Carney's name has also been floated as a potential recipient for this year's prize, though his current odds are modest at 2.6 percent. The Canadian Prime Minister, who took office in 2025, has been outspoken against Trump's policies, including his sweeping global tariffs and suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state. Carney has also sought to strengthen ties with Europe and reduce economic dependence on the U.S.\n\nCarney further bolstered his potential for winning the Nobel Peace Prize with a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January. In his address, Carney called for middle powers to collaborate amidst a shifting global order. Currently, the prediction markets favor Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a community-led aid initiative amid the ongoing civil war, to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Other frontrunners include the global nonprofit Save the Children and Ukrainian children's rights activist Mykola Kuleba. The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually on October 9, recognizes individuals or organizations that have made the most significant and best efforts for fraternity between nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the promotion and encouragement of peace congresses.",
  "summary": "Trump lost the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who gave her medal to him.",
  "key_points": [
    "Trump's odds of winning Nobel Peace Prize less than 1%, far lower than Carney's 2.6%",
    "Trump's administration involved military operation in Venezuela, escalated Iran conflict",
    "Carney advocated for middle powers collaboration at 2025 World Economic Forum"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}