{
  "id": 12308484,
  "title": "World Bank says Middle East economy to contract 2.1% in 2026 on Iran war",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/world-bank-says-middle-east-economy-to-contract-2-1-in-2026-on-iran-12308484",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-06T05:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The National Business",
    "slug": "the-national-business",
    "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/10/06/world-bank-says-middle-east-economy-to-contract-21-in-2026-on-iran-war/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The World Bank has revised its 2026 economic forecast for the Middle East downwards, projecting a 2.1 percent contraction for the region. This comes amid ongoing concerns over the Iran war and its impact on energy supplies. The conflict has affected numerous sectors, including energy, tourism, aviation, and logistics, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to contract by an average of 4.3 percent in 2026, down 5.7 percentage points from April. This is due to reduced export volumes and significant losses in output and government revenue. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are projected to experience a slowdown, with their economies shrinking from 4.6 and 6.2 percent in 2025 to -1.6 and -2.0 percent in 2026, respectively. Qatar is forecast to have its weakest economic performance in five decades, with growth falling from 1.8 percent in 2025 to -20.9 percent in 2026. Kuwait's economy is also expected to contract by 14.6 percent, a significant downgrade from the April forecast. Oman, which is less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, is the only GCC member projected to see positive growth this year, at 3.1 percent. Iraq's growth prospects have also been revised downwards, with a negative growth rate of 12.4 percent. Iran's economy is also expected to shrink by 7.7 percent in 2026. The World Bank's revised forecasts are based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen from December 31, 2025. Under this scenario, economic activity in 2027 is projected to rebound for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, but Iraq's growth rate is expected to remain negative. The World Bank notes that the conflict is causing a compounding effect on economies that are already struggling with conflict, which could have long-term economic consequences.",
  "summary": "The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its 2026 forecast for the economies in the Middle East , saying the region's overall GDP will contract by 2.1 per cent for this year. The revision was the latest downgrade the World Bank has forecast for the region as the Iran war continues to constrain energy supplies. Economists had previously lowered their 2026 forecasts from 3.6 per cent in January to 2.1 per…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 7,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "The Jakarta Post",
        "title": "Middle East war sharpens focus on ASEAN energy security plans",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/middle-east-war-sharpens-focus-on-asean-energy-security-plans",
        "published": "2026-10-06T01:14:16.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Vibes",
        "title": "Oil prices ease as Middle East exports recover towards pre-war levels",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/oil-prices-ease-as-middle-east-exports-recover-towards-pre-war-levels",
        "published": "2026-10-06T01:19:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Channel News Asia",
        "title": "Middle East war sharpens focus on ASEAN energy security plans",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/middle-east-war-sharpens-focus-on-asean-energy-security-plans-12276365",
        "published": "2026-10-06T01:27:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Bangkok Post Business",
        "title": "Middle East war sharpens focus on Asean energy security plans",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/middle-east-war-sharpens-focus-on-asean-energy-security-plans-12292113",
        "published": "2026-10-06T02:42:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "New Straits Times",
        "title": "Banks weather Middle East shock with asset quality intact",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/banks-weather-middle-east-shock-with-asset-quality-intact",
        "published": "2026-10-06T02:57:44.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The National UAE",
        "title": "World Bank says Middle East economy to contract 2.1% in 2026 on Iran war",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/06/world-bank-says-middle-east-economy-to-contract-2-1-in-2026-on-iran",
        "published": "2026-10-06T05:00:00.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}