{
  "id": 12223705,
  "title": "SA’S CANCER STORY (PART 2): SA’s cancer story: Are diagnosis rates actually surging?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/05/sas-cancer-story-part-2-sas-cancer-story-are-diagnosis-rates-actually",
  "topic": "health",
  "section": "Health & Medicine",
  "published": "2026-10-05T20:30:18.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Daily Maverick",
    "slug": "daily-maverick",
    "url": "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-10-05-sa-cancer/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In the second part of the Daily Maverick and Spotlight special series on cancer, reporter Biénne Huisman explores whether cancer cases are actually on the rise in South Africa. Huisman visited academic institutions and a Limpopo citrus orchard to analyze the available data. While social media often spreads scare stories about increasing cancer rates, there are also reliable sources sounding the alarm. The complexity of the situation lies in the varying epidemiological trajectories of different cancers. For instance, cervical cancer rates are expected to decline due to HPV vaccination, while rates of colorectal cancer in younger people are increasing.\n\nDemographic changes, such as an aging population, also play a significant role. Since the risk of several cancers increases with age, more older people generally mean more cancer cases. A large global cancer study found that more than half of cancer deaths occur in people aged 65 or older. Even though the study revealed that total cancer deaths more than doubled from 1990 to 2023, this was driven by an increase in older people globally, which resulted in a 24% decrease in the age-standardised cancer mortality rate.\n\nHowever, the picture is less optimistic in poorer countries. Urbanisation and globalisation in South Africa have led to the adoption of Westernised lifestyles, exposing people to factors like smoking, alcohol use, processed food, and obesity, which are linked to increased cancer risk. The National Cancer Registry (NCR) in South Africa, which tracks mainly lab-confirmed cancer diagnoses, reported around 91,600 diagnosed cases in 2024. To estimate total cases, including undiagnosed ones, mathematical modelling is used, with two common sources: the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the Global Burden of Disease collaboration.\n\nAccording to the IARC, there were approximately 102,000 new cases of cancer in South Africa in 2024, alongside 241,000 people living with cancer and around 55,000 cancer-related deaths. The Global Burden of Disease collaboration estimates higher figures, with 127,000 new cases, 335,000 people living with cancer, and 70,000 cancer deaths in 2023. These estimates, similar to those for tuberculosis, also project a substantial increase in global cancer deaths to around 18 million by 2050, up from around 10 million in 2023. In South Africa, cancer deaths are predicted to almost double from around 64,000 in 2024 to 127,000 by 2050, largely driven by changing demographics and lifestyles.",
  "summary": "It isn’t always easy to know what to believe when it comes to cancer. In part 2 of a Daily Maverick and Spotlight special series on cancer, Biénne Huisman asks whether cancer cases are on the increase in South Africa, and why. On the way, she visits academic corridors and a Limpopo citrus orchard, all while trying to make sense of the available data.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}