{
  "id": 12194791,
  "title": "La City ve factible un Gobierno PP-Vox y apuesta por mayorías claras para aprobar leyes y presupuestos",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/05/la-city-ve-factible-un-gobierno-pp-vox-y-apuesta-por-mayorias-claras",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-05T16:49:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Expansion ES",
    "slug": "expansion-es",
    "url": "https://www.expansion.com/elecciones/elecciones-generales/2026/10/05/6ac3d437e5fdead21f8b4574.html"
  },
  "original_language": "es",
  "account": "The City of London analysts and investors, apprehensive about the debt crisis in France, recall Prime Minister Sánchez's proven electoral acumen in overturning surveys and believe that the biggest changes in a right-wing executive would come through issues such as immigration and climate. London-based investors and analysts cited by the source point towards a coalition government in Spain between the PP and Vox as the most probable outcome of the upcoming elections on November 29th. They expect a government capable of passing laws and budgets, unlike the situation in recent years, but do not anticipate a radical shift beyond a change in policies related to immigration or climate. The majority points towards housing as the major problem in the country. According to Lizzy Galbraith, a senior political economist at Aberdeen Investments, a government led by the PP is the most probable outcome of the elections. She does not rule out Sánchez's continued tenure due to his strong electoral history. Many in the City emphasize Spain's survival instinct. Mariana Monteiro, an economist at JPMorgan, also sees a plausible absolute majority for the parties of Feijóo and Abascal, but warns that the implications for growth from such a government would likely be modest, and that rising and falling risks would balance each other out. The director of a global North American investment manager states that they have had two breakfasts with Alberto Nadal, the deputy secretary of economy and sustainable development at the PP, and feel they will not change a single thing. Feijóo is the favorite of the market, but not because the alternative implies destabilization - the source continues. There is no fear [with the PSOE] because it is known and has not caused particular damage to the market. A change in direction for the Spanish economy seems unlikely, predicts Martin Wolburg, a senior economist at Generali Investments. He agrees that there are high odds of a right-wing government, but notes that investors would only favor such a scenario if it brings operational increases and a budget. A coalition between the PP and Vox is also the most probable option for RBC's macroeconomics strategist. Many surveys suggest a government of PP and Vox, and the source believes that is what the market assumes for the time being. The sudden election forecast does not matter much beyond its coincidence with France's debt crisis. Fitch Ratings reminds that the point of no return in Spain's politics in recent years has prevented structural reforms and greater fiscal consolidation, as the control of debt as a percentage of GDP has been achieved thanks to economic growth and tax revenues, rather than through adjustments. One of those engines has been immigration, so the US-based firm warns of the uncertainty that a new government could introduce through the restriction of immigration, which could represent a threat to the country's growth. Another source, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that Fitch Ratings recalls that the dead point in which Spain's politics has lived in recent years has prevented structural reforms and greater fiscal consolidation, as debt control as a percentage of GDP has been achieved thanks to economic growth and tax revenues, rather than through adjustments. One of those engines has been immigration, so the US-based firm warns of the uncertainty that a new government could introduce through the restriction of immigration, which could represent a threat to the country's growth. One of the fears of investors is another legislature without clear majorities. Advanced elections increase the risk of a Parliament without majorities, and this risk impacts on debt prices to the extent that it can ruin constructive and structural macroeconomic reforms, warns Filippo Taddei, a senior economist for Europe at Goldman Sachs. The director of a fund with billions invested in Spain believes that what is substantial is that on November 29th, a government governs, so that Spain stands out from other neighbors with weak executives. The worst would be a minority government held to ransom by Basque and Catalan agreements, he reasons. In any case, the main concern today comes from France's debt crisis, with the consequent rise in debt prices for countries like Spain. The chief economist at Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, comments that investors do not feel very worried about Spain, regardless of the result, as they believe any new government will adhere in general to the EU's fiscal goals.",
  "summary": "Analistas e inversores, más preocupados por la crisis de la deuda en Francia, recuerdan la probada pericia electoral de Sánchez para revertir las encuestas y creen que los mayores cambios con un Ejecutivo de derechas vendrían en carpetas como la inmigración y el clima. Leer",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}