{
  "id": 12119503,
  "title": "A Prediction Market About the Past? Sure, Why Not!",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/05/a-prediction-market-about-the-past-sure-why-not",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-05T09:30:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Wired",
    "slug": "wired",
    "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/a-prediction-market-about-the-past-sure-why-not/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Verifact Markets, a new startup that markets itself as a \"prediction market for disputed facts,\" is betting that people will be interested in weighing in on questions about past events. Instead of wagering on future outcomes, the company allows traders to bet on whether certain events actually occurred. During beta testing, initial topics included whether Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide and whether a major insurance company intentionally delayed claims related to specific wildfires. The startup is being funded by Positron Capital Management, the family office of tech investor Peter Wokwicz. Wokwicz sees this as a way to settle debates over controversial issues. Verifact Markets' unique setup allows users to submit evidence for or against their position, and the company will factor in trading prices alongside other evidence to determine the outcome. The company is currently in talks with market makers for liquidity and is focusing on offering its services to people outside of the United States to navigate the legal implications of its business model.",
  "summary": "As prediction markets surge in popularity, a new platform called Verifact Markets is pushing the concept even further, letting users trade on “disputed facts.”",
  "key_points": [
    "Verifact Markets is a prediction market for disputed past facts.",
    "Company allows betting on whether events actually occurred.",
    "Positron Capital Management funds startup for settling debates."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Wired Business",
        "title": "A Prediction Market About the Past? Sure, Why Not!",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/05/a-prediction-market-about-the-past-sure-why-not-12120232",
        "published": "2026-10-05T09:30:00.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}