{
  "id": 12033278,
  "title": "RBI may end rate-cut cycle with first hike since February 2023",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/04/rbi-may-end-rate-cut-cycle-with-first-hike-since-february-2023",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-04T23:49:18.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Times of India",
    "slug": "times-of-india",
    "url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-may-end-rate-cut-cycle-with-first-hike-since-february-2023/articleshow/134683147.cms"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may conclude its rate-cut cycle with a 25 basis point hike, the first increase since February 2023, according to analysts and economists. The last rate cut occurred in February 2025, following a five-year tightening cycle that began after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the latest cut, RBI had slashed rates by 25 basis points each in February, April, June, and December, bringing the repo rate to 5.25%. Despite inflation risks from the West Asia conflict and weaker farm output, the central bank has avoided further tightening, anticipating structural changes and improved balance sheets could absorb any margin pressure. SBI Chairman CS Setty indicated a possible repo rate hike, though he believes it will not significantly impact credit growth. Bank lending rates may experience the impact sooner than bond markets, given the liquidity provided by FCNR(B) flows, which amounted to $127 billion. Indranil Pan, Yes Bank's chief economist, anticipates inflation to broaden, potentially reaching 6% in Q2, while corporate CFO Gaurav Kapur predicts a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in October. Chief Economist Aastha Gudwani expects the hike to occur on October 7, citing rising global oil prices and robust domestic growth. Overall, the RBI's future rate hikes are expected to be limited to around 75 basis points, with a focus on draining excess liquidity and aligning overnight rates with the policy rate.",
  "summary": "Bankers expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points soon. This marks the end of the rate-cutting phase that began in February 2025. Economists predict inflation will exceed the RBI’s forecasts, necessitating tightening. Experts anticipate resilient growth will provide the RBI room to act despite external pressures. The focus will remain on managing liquidity and…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}