{
  "id": 11930815,
  "title": "Russia Pretends to Negotiate: Washington Must Change Moscow’s Calculation",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/04/russia-pretends-to-negotiate-washington-must-change-moscows",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-04T13:09:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Kyiv Post",
    "slug": "kyiv-post",
    "url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/85839"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Russia persists in presenting itself as open to peace, despite its demands and intensified military campaign against Ukraine. The contradiction between these claims and actions should inform forthcoming diplomatic efforts. On September 5, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vladimir Putin met in Moscow for over three hours, followed by a visit to Kyiv with proposals aimed at narrowing the gap. The Kremlin heralded the encounter as \"highly useful,\" yet it yielded no breakthrough. Moscow remains insistent on Ukraine ceding four regions it does not entirely control and renouncing NATO aspirations – demanding diplomatic concessions that have not been secured militarily.\n\nFollowing Secretary of State Marco Rubio's meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York on September 23, Rubio indicated that both parties expressed interest in a limited ceasefire focused on energy and grain. However, no agreement emerged, and Lavrov reiterated that Russia would not halt military operations during negotiations under any format. Following the Rubio-Lavrov talks, Russia unleashed 282 drones and other weapons, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles, killing eight people: two in Kyiv, where a maternity hospital was damaged, and six agricultural workers in Kharkiv. These attacks were not isolated. In the first three weeks of September, Russia launched approximately 2,100 jet-powered Shahed-type drones and 136 missiles, resulting in 288 casualties, including children. The newer jet-powered drones fly faster and higher, making Ukraine's interception of them more challenging, with a current interception rate of around 60%, compared to roughly 90% for propeller-driven models. This shift underscores Russia's evolving approach to maintain pressure on Ukraine, making a prolonged campaign more sustainable.\n\nTogether, the persisting demands, refusal to cease hostilities, ongoing attacks, and investment in weapons that facilitate prolonged strikes create a pattern that is hard to dismiss. Moscow appears to believe that time and military force can influence its negotiating position. Washington provides Russia an avenue to press for territorial and political terms it has not achieved on the battlefield, seek sanctions relief and renewed economic ties, and pressure Kyiv to accept conditions closer to Russia's demands. However, Russia does not require diplomacy to end the war; it requires diplomacy to advance its interests. The Trump administration extended an invitation to Putin to the December G20 summit in Miami. A bipartisan group of 14 senators cautioned against the invitation, warning that admitting Putin without corresponding changes in behavior would legitimize and normalize the Kremlin. That invitation raises an immediate question: what should Washington do if Moscow's conduct does not alter?\n\nWashington now possesses a concrete tool to assess whether leverage can shift Moscow's calculation. On September 18, President Trump signed into law the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which broadens sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia, targeting financial, energy, and commercial channels that sustain its war economy. It also addresses sanctions evasion, such as transactions involving Russian-origin oil and shadow-fleet vessels. The Senate passed the law with bipartisan support, and the House also voted in favor. While passage marks a starting point, Russia has developed networks to maintain wartime revenue despite restrictions. Strategic and decisive implementation of the sanctions law should diminish Russia's revenues and commercial channels, making it clear that economic relief is contingent upon measurable progress toward ending the war, not just further discussions. This economic pressure should be complemented by military support to deter Moscow from assuming that Ukraine will become more manageable to coerce over time.\n\nThe administration has allocated most of the $400 million Congress approved via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, with aid expected to reach Ukraine promptly. Coupled with US licensing for Patriot-interceptor production in Ukraine, immediate military assistance would enhance leverage by curbing what Russia can achieve through continued attacks and diminishing Moscow's motivation to wait for better terms. President Trump's authority under this new sanctions law allows for strategic and decisive action, reinforcing Reagan's \"peace through strength\" principle. This principle suggests that strength enhances the credibility of diplomacy, rather than replacing it. The administration should implement the sanctions law strategically and decisively while maintaining military support to bolster Washington's leverage and Ukraine's position at the negotiating table. The ultimate objective is to make Moscow recognize that continuing the war must become costlier than ending it. The opinions expressed in this article represent the author's perspective and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kyiv Post.",
  "summary": "Moscow’s playbook is abundantly clear: continue negotiating in order to string Washington along until it either pressures Ukraine to capitulate or the Donbas is conquered in its entirety. Both scenarios are unlikely.",
  "key_points": [
    "Russia insists on Ukraine ceding four regions and renouncing NATO aspirations.",
    "September 23 meeting between Rubio and Lavrov yields no ceasefire agreement.",
    "September sanctions law aims to diminish Russia's revenue and commercial channels."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}