{
  "id": 11854584,
  "title": "RBI May Raise Rates By 25 Basis Points In October, Economists Flag Rising Oil Prices And Inflation",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/04/rbi-may-raise-rates-by-25-basis-points-in-october-economists-flag",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-04T05:10:07.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Free Press Journal",
    "slug": "free-press-journal",
    "url": "https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/rbi-may-raise-rates-by-25-basis-points-in-october-economists-flag-rising-oil-prices-and-inflation"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in its October policy meeting, according to economists. The Monetary Policy Committee will convene from October 5 to 7 to determine the benchmark repo rate.\n\nHigher oil prices and a surge in inflation have bolstered the argument for the RBI to act sooner rather than later. Bank of America recently forecasted a 25 basis point increase for October, pointing to the impact of rising energy costs, food inflation, and overall price pressures.\n\nSBI Research also supports the 25 basis point hike, citing spreading inflation, worsening global conditions, shifting liquidity, and a fresh evaluation of risks across markets. The report emphasizes that an early move would be prudent in the face of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over crude prices.\n\nInflation has recently climbed to 4.82 percent in August, up from 4.45 percent in July, putting additional pressure on policymakers. Additionally, strong El Niño conditions and the prospect of below-normal rainfall in October could create further risks for the winter crop.\n\nRising crude prices and increasing global bond yields have also diminished the RBI's ability to maintain unchanged rates. BNP Paribas India noted that the country's economic outlook has weakened in recent weeks, with Brent crude surpassing $100 a barrel and US Treasury yields approaching 5 percent.\n\nWhile Nomura expects limited increases, they anticipate the RBI to cap hikes at 25-50 basis points during this cycle. Analysts believe that markets are anticipating a more substantial tightening than current conditions warrant, assigning an 80% probability to a limited policy adjustment rather than a broader cycle involving rate increases exceeding 75 basis points. Ultimately, the final decision rests with the Monetary Policy Committee.",
  "summary": "New Delhi: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to start raising interest rates at its October policy meeting, as higher oil prices and rising inflation strengthen the case for early action. The Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7 to decide the benchmark repo rate. Some economists have brought forward their earlier forecast of a December increase. October hike gains…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}