{
  "id": 11748183,
  "title": "Iran Is Losing Some of Its Leverage Over the Strait of Hormuz",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/03/iran-is-losing-some-of-its-leverage-over-the-strait-of-hormuz",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "OilPrice",
    "slug": "oilprice",
    "url": "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Is-Losing-Some-of-Its-Leverage-Over-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The flow of crude from the Persian Gulf has returned to nearly pre-war levels, but the latest data indicates Iran may be losing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude exited the region between September 1 and 28, matching the pre-war average when Iran's contribution is excluded. Despite the increase in crude levels, a refinery bottleneck continues to cause global diesel price surges. EU figures published on October 1 revealed record diesel pump prices, even as oil exports recover in the United States. The route for crude has shifted dramatically since the war began - previously, 83% of the region's crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but in September, only 40% did. Instead, oil now travels through pipelines and alternative routes via Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. About 60% of the crude that crossed Hormuz in August physically passed through it, with over 70% of the crude changing tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman. For Iran, the recovery signifies a significant weakening of its ability to disrupt the waterway. Mohammad Ghaedi, a George Washington University lecturer, told Radio Farda that the current traffic levels are too much for Tehran and unacceptable to its authorities. However, this does not mean Iran has lost control of Hormuz. Tehran never formally controlled the strait; its leverage came from making passage dangerous for shipping companies, forcing them to weigh risks and costs. This ability appears to have weakened as US forces protect commercial shipping, and companies find ways to move oil while limiting exposure to the strait. Ellen R. Wald, energy markets analyst and author, stated that Iran's ability and will to attack ships in the Gulf is declining, allowing vessels to transit under US military cover. However, Wald cautioned that the recovery in flows should not be mistaken for a return to normalcy, as significant risks and high costs are involved. The rebound in crude flows has reduced immediate pressure on global supplies, but a \"war premium\" remains in oil prices due to the continued threat to vessels, elevated insurance costs, and dependence on US military protection. The recovery in exports also shows the rebuilding of the Gulf oil-trading system around the disruption, making Tehran's ability to use Hormuz as a coercive tool weaker. However, the extraordinary measures required to keep oil moving demonstrate that the strait remains a source of leverage for Iran. For now, evidence suggests a gradual erosion of Iranian leverage rather than a complete loss.",
  "summary": "The flow of crude from the Persian Gulf has recovered to near-prewar levels, but the latest data shows that much of the oil is reaching markets through routes and shipping arrangements that did not exist before the war, raising the question of whether Iran is losing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude left the region between September 1 and 28,…",
  "key_points": [
    "Iran's share of crude passing through Strait of Hormuz fell to 40% in September.",
    "Refinery bottleneck causes global diesel price surges despite increased crude levels.",
    "Iran's leverage over strait appears to have weakened with US protection of shipping."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}