{
  "id": 11560355,
  "title": "Growth forecasts",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/03/growth-forecasts",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-03T00:20:21.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Business Recorder",
    "slug": "business-recorder",
    "url": "https://www.brecorder.com/news/40442394/growth-forecasts"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Asian Development Bank has forecast Pakistan's economic growth for the current fiscal year at 3.7 percent, which is lower than the government's prediction of 4 percent and matches the provisional growth rate of 2025-26 as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have forecasted growth rates of 3.2 percent and 3.5 percent respectively for the same period.\n\nThese discrepancies in growth projections may be due to different time frames, assessments of conflict outcomes in the Middle East, and Russia-Ukraine war, and the assumption of Pakistani authorities adhering to IMF policies. The IMF team is currently in-country to discuss the fourth quarterly review and the next tranche release.\n\nInflation is projected at 8.3 percent by the ADB, 8.2 percent by the World Bank, and 8.4 percent by the IMF. However, Pakistani authorities anticipate higher inflation rates of 9.2 percent in July and 11.2 percent in August. Despite this, the State Bank of Pakistan has not adjusted its medium-term projection of 5-7 percent for inflation.\n\nThe basis for GDP growth can be attributed to the industry growth rate, which increased from 1.96 percent in 2024-25 to 6.61 percent in 2025-26. However, this growth is challenging for large-scale manufacturing, which claims that input costs have risen due to IMF-imposed tariff hikes to meet full cost recovery criteria. The private sector's credit growth is also negative, partly due to a policy rate more than double the regional competitors' rates.\n\nThe textile sector's closure of over 100 units is a testament to the lack of industrial output growth. Inflation, as projected by the authorities, is expected to be significantly higher than the multilateral projections, which could impact the government's ability to make timely policy decisions.",
  "summary": "EDITORIAL: Asian Development Bank has forecast Pakistan’s growth for the ongoing fiscal year at 3.7 percent – 0.3 percent lower than the government forecast for the year at 4 percent and identical to the growth rate (provisional) for 2025-26 as noted on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) website with the size of the economy calculated at 4523.1 billion dollars with per capita income at 1901…",
  "key_points": [
    "Pakistan's economic growth forecasted at 3.7% for current fiscal year",
    "Growth projections vary among ADB, World Bank, IMF, and Pakistani authorities",
    "Textile sector closures highlight challenges for large-scale manufacturing"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Diverging growth forecasts from international lenders and Pakistani authorities signal uncertainty over the country's economic trajectory, potentially complicating policy decisions amid already high and rising inflation.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}