{
  "id": 11438933,
  "title": "RHB Group maintains Malaysia's 2026 growth forecast at 5.4pct",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/02/rhb-group-maintains-malaysias-2026-growth-forecast-at-5-4pct",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-02T12:45:31.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "New Straits Times",
    "slug": "new-straits-times",
    "url": "https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/2026/10/1546394/rhb-group-maintains-malaysias-2026-growth-forecast-54pct"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Malaysia's central bank forecast for the country's GDP growth in 2026 stands at 5.4 percent, according to RHB Group. This projection is based on the strength of domestic demand and the steady growth of electric and electronic exports, as reported by the bank's Global Economics Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. In Q4 2026, the inflation forecast has been revised downwards to 1.9 percent from the previous estimate of 2.1 percent, due to softer-than-expected price pressures. Throughout the first half of 2026, inflation averaged 1.8 percent, aided by the reinstatement of the BUDI95 monthly quota and an increase in the diesel subsidy quota from September. In the latter part of 2026, inflation will be dictated by global commodity price fluctuations, domestic policy changes, and potential gains from food inflation, as per Barnabas Gan, RHB Group's group chief economist and head of market research. The overnight policy rate is anticipated to remain at 2.75 percent during the upcoming November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, given that inflation levels are manageable. RHB Bank anticipates a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the policy rate by the first half of 2027 (1H 2027) as a gradual normalization towards a more neutral policy stance. The fiscal deficit is projected to stay on course for the government's 3.5 percent of GDP target, although there is a possibility of a modest overachievement due to uncertainties surrounding fuel subsidy spending. Malaysia's current account surplus is expected to remain at 2.4 percent of GDP for 2026, matching the surplus of 2.5 percent in the first half of 2026. The goods surplus should be maintained by a resilient E&E exports sector, propelled by the global technology cycle, while robust tourism earnings and information and communication technology services exports should bolster the services account, thus sustaining the current account surplus.",
  "summary": "KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026 is projected at 5.4 per cent, underpinned by resilient domestic demand and sustained strength in electric and electronic (E&E) exports, according to RHB Group.",
  "key_points": [
    "Malaysia's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 5.4% by RHB Group",
    "Inflation forecast down to 1.9% in Q4 2026 from 2.1%",
    "Overnight policy rate to remain at 2.75% during November MPC meeting"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}