{
  "id": 11259156,
  "title": "Flávio será presidente – pelo menos segundo a Kalshi e Polymarket",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/01/flavio-sera-presidente-pelo-menos-segundo-a-kalshi-e-polymarket",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-01T19:13:51.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Brazil Journal",
    "slug": "brazil-journal",
    "url": "https://braziljournal.com/flavio-sera-presidente-pelo-menos-segundo-a-kalshi-e-polymarket/"
  },
  "original_language": "pt",
  "account": "Recent predictions from prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give victory to Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's most tense election in recent years, as the numbers are closely contested between the two leading candidates. Polymarket shows a 61% chance of Flávio winning, while Lula has a 39% probability. On Polymarket, Flávio's chances are 62%, compared to Lula's 38%. The shift in Flávio's favor has occurred in the last 20 days, with Lula leading by 39% on Polymarket until September 10th, when Flávio took the lead and has maintained it ever since. As of today, Flávio's victory chance has reached its highest point on the platform, surpassing the previous record of 60.6% on September 22nd. Kalshi's report is similar, showing that seven days before an election, the contracts on the platform have a 90.6% accuracy rate one day before, and 90.5% the previous night.",
  "summary": "Na reta final da mais palpitante eleição dos últimos anos, com os números obscenamente apertados entre os dois principais candidatos, a Polymarket e a Kalshi estão dando a vitória para Flávio Bolsonaro. E os dados históricos mostram que a taxa de acerto das empresas de mercados preditivos nesse estágio da corrida eleitoral costuma ser muito […] The post Flávio será presidente – pelo menos segundo…",
  "key_points": [
    "Flávio Bolsonaro leads in prediction markets with 61% chance of winning",
    "Lula has 39% probability of victory according to Polymarket",
    "Flávio's lead has increased to 62% on Polymarket in last 20 days"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}