{
  "id": 11163606,
  "title": "Why are oil futures still so high if Middle East exports have recovered?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/01/why-are-oil-futures-still-so-high-if-middle-east-exports-have",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-01T10:00:27.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Hellenic Shipping News",
    "slug": "hellenic-shipping-news",
    "url": "https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/why-are-oil-futures-still-so-high-if-middle-east-exports-have-recovered/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Goldman Sachs analysts point out that while Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to last year's levels, crude prices continue to stay high due to a significant risk premium. According to their estimates, Gulf exports, which include so-called dark exports, reached 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, matching their 2025 average. This recovery occurred despite an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and the Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait.\n\nThe analyst highlights that higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, have contributed to this rebound. She reports that estimated crude exports made up nearly 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports, accounting for 19 million barrels a day, or 108% of their 2025 average, in the week leading up to the report.\n\nSaudi exports more than doubled in September, reaching 11.6 million barrels a day, while the UAE also saw exports above their 2025 average. However, satellite data suggests no seaborne crude or main refined product exports from Iran during the month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the global oil market was roughly balanced in September.\n\nThe bank anticipates that Brent crude will moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027. The high physical prices, such as dated Brent, Goldman attributes to a large risk premium. This premium is seen as reflecting two primary factors: 1) downside risks to supply due to potential escalation threatening long-term oil production, and 2) record low global stocks (excluding OECD commercial stocks), prompting the need to rebuild stocks quickly due to escalation risks.",
  "summary": "Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby assessed, in a note why Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to last year’s levels, yet crude prices remain elevated because of a large risk premium. The bank estimates Gulf exports, including so-called dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, in line with ...",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Investing.com",
        "title": "Why are oil futures still so high if Middle East exports have recovered?",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/30/why-are-oil-futures-still-so-high-if-middle-east-exports-have",
        "published": "2026-09-30T12:20:48.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}