{
  "id": 11148558,
  "title": "La deuda pone en alerta al mercado: \"El riesgo del crudo es temporal, el fiscal no\"",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/01/la-deuda-pone-en-alerta-al-mercado-el-riesgo-del-crudo-es-temporal-el",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-01T08:47:15.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Expansion ES",
    "slug": "expansion-es",
    "url": "https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2026/10/01/6abe15a0e5fdea5f138b4599.html"
  },
  "original_language": "es",
  "account": "The latest quarter began with a storm of new highs in debt interest rates and risk premiums. Investor concerns pushed required yields on bonds to unprecedented levels since 2002 in the U.S. and since the last century in the United Kingdom. Turbulence returned to markets, largely due to the mismatch between oil prices and debt interest rates during the first portfolio adjustments of the new quarter. In recent weeks, oil prices and debt interest rates have shown a high degree of correlation. As the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose, the yields on bonds also increased, while a decline in oil prices extended to financing costs. The first quarter portfolio adjustments disrupted this correlation. Brent crude opened the session at $98 per barrel, and even the probability of a Fed rate hike in October fell below 50% following the US inflation indicator released yesterday. Meanwhile, debt yields took a series of new highs today, overshadowing oil references, including monetary ones. Virginia Perez, director of Investments at Tressis, states in her outlook for the last quarter of the year that what moves markets now is fiscal policy, not monetary policy. Our main conviction is that the hardest inflation to moderate is not brought by oil, but by the deficit, since the risk of oil is temporary. This results in a scenario where debt yields mark new highs in several decades due to sales and corresponding drops in bond prices. Redeployments in fixed income are consolidating as a focus of concern in markets. The high public and private debt, combined with a restrictive rate environment in some economies, limits fiscal maneuverability and increases financial vulnerability, warns Federico Battaner, director of Investments at Anta AM. European debt references, including Germany's long-term bond, have also reached unprecedented levels since the 1990s. The yield on its 30-year bond exceeds 5.97%, the highest since 2002. In Europe, the German 10-year bond is at its highest level since 2009, one day after an inflation data release in Germany showing 3.3%, higher than expected, and a 71 basis point increase in its debt yield, the biggest quarterly increase since 2024. The tension reflected in debt brings back the spotlight on risk premiums. Political and fiscal uncertainties increase investor concerns over sovereign bonds. This is evident as France's risk premium touched its highest level since 2012, surpassing 128 basis points, and Italy's 10-year bond premium has strengthened above 100 basis points, its highest in over a year since June 2025. Spain's risk premium remains around 60 basis points.",
  "summary": "El último trimestre del año comienza con un vendaval de nuevos máximos en los intereses de la deuda y en las primas de riesgo. Los recelos de los inversores elevan las rentabilidades exigidas a los bonos a niveles inéditos desde 2002 en EEUU, y del siglo pasado en Reino Unido. Leer",
  "key_points": [
    "Oil prices and debt interest rates show high correlation",
    "Fed rate hike probability falls below 50%",
    "Fiscal policy moves markets, not monetary policy"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}