{
  "id": 10989080,
  "title": "Cash-rich oil majors face post-Iran war strategy rethink",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/30/cash-rich-oil-majors-face-post-iran-war-strategy-rethink",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-30T16:32:19.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "New Straits Times",
    "slug": "new-straits-times",
    "url": "https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2026/10/1544996/cash-rich-oil-majors-face-post-iran-war-strategy-rethink"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The world's largest oil companies, including BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies, are projected to report combined third-quarter profits of approximately $53 billion, a significant increase from $48 billion in the previous quarter and more than double the amounts from the previous year. This surge in profits is attributed to record refining margins, despite the ongoing Iran war that began in late February. Initially, oil majors responded cautiously to this windfall, prioritizing debt reduction over major new investments.\n\nThe Iran conflict has evolved into a protracted, low-intensity regional struggle marked by attacks on energy infrastructure, refineries, and shipping lanes. These developments have created a higher geopolitical risk premium, altered supply lines, and increased energy nationalism. The consequences of this conflict on global energy markets are expected to persist even after the fighting ceases.\n\nAmong the majors, Exxon is poised to benefit the most due to its substantial refining capacity of around four million barrels per day, the largest among the groups. The refining sector has seen a resurgence, reversing a decade-long trend of reduced exposure due to concerns about emissions, weak returns, and uncertain long-term fuel demand. However, despite the opportunity, companies are unlikely to invest in new refineries in Europe or North America due to challenging economics. Nevertheless, investing in new capacity in Asia or Africa has become more attractive, particularly when associated with long-term supply and purchase agreements.\n\nThe conflict has highlighted the need for buyers to diversify their supplies. For decades, energy security was a secondary consideration for consumers, refiners, and producers, who organized investments based on access to the cheapest, largest oil and gas reservoirs. This balance has shifted as buyers, shaken by months of disruptions, become increasingly willing to pay a premium for reliable supplies, while producers reassess the value of geographic diversification.\n\nInternational oil companies are now more inclined to direct capital towards new producing regions such as the Atlantic Basin, Africa, and Asia instead of concentrating investment in the Middle East. Companies are accelerating the development of existing oil and gas assets while increasing exploration spending in countries like Namibia, Brazil, Angola, and Venezuela. The challenge will be ensuring these new projects remain profitable in a future lower-price environment, even as firms face rising costs for rigs, equipment, and skilled labor.\n\nThe Iran conflict has also reshaped global trade flows. Asian buyers are increasingly sourcing crude oil and liquefied natural gas from the Atlantic Basin, resulting in voyage times more than doubling compared to traditional Middle Eastern routes. This has driven tanker rates to record highs as supply chains stretch. While initially perceived as a temporary adjustment, this is increasingly becoming a structural feature of global energy markets. For companies with extensive trading businesses, such as Shell and BP, longer supply chains could justify greater investment in tankers, storage facilities, and trading infrastructure.\n\nUltimately, investors will welcome greater returns in the form of dividends and share repurchases. However, over time, Big Oil will need to present a clear vision for navigating this altered environment. The winners in the next decade will not be those that merely capitalize on today's windfall profits but rather those that use them to prepare for a world characterized by higher geopolitical risk, longer supply chains, and a global push for energy security.",
  "summary": "THE world’s biggest energy companies are poised to deliver another quarter of bumper profits, fuelled by record refining margins.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}