{
  "id": 10978012,
  "title": "Oil Price Forecasts Jump as Hormuz Disruption Drags On",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/30/oil-price-forecasts-jump-as-hormuz-disruption-drags-on",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "OilPrice",
    "slug": "oilprice",
    "url": "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Price-Forecasts-Jump-as-Hormuz-Disruption-Drags-On.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Oil price forecasts have surged as prospects for an expedient revival of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz diminish, according to a recent Reuters poll. The average projection for Brent crude is now $89.05 per barrel, compared to $85.08 a month prior. Similarly, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast has increased from $80.20 to $83.90 per barrel. The survey includes responses from 30 economists and analysts who are deliberating on the longevity of the Gulf oil flow recovery.\n\nOpinions diverge on the timing of a full resumption of Hormuz traffic. HSBC forecasts only incremental improvements in shipping, describing the Strait as \"structurally impaired\" with liquids flows remaining well below pre-war levels. DBS Bank does not anticipate the conflict being resolved within the next three to six months.\n\nDespite the uncertainties, Gulf producers have managed to restore a significant portion of their exports. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including vessels with transponders switched off, reached 23.3 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past week, aligning closely with their 2025 average after a 100% surge in September. This figure encompasses total Gulf exports, encompassing \"dark exports\" not visible through Hormuz.\n\nChina's demand for oil presents another area of uncertainty. Nomisma Energia anticipates a rise in crude imports as wartime inventory drawdowns reverse and winter demand approaches. However, FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have become more cautious, trimming their Q4 import forecasts by approximately 400,000 bpd to 9.2-9.3 million bpd due to surging freight costs and the disappearance of cheap Iranian and Venezuelan barrels. China's imports have rebounded from June's decade-low to nearly 9 million bpd in August, but remain below last year's average.\n\nOPEC is expected to maintain its current production targets unchanged at their upcoming meeting, according to Reuters sources. Experts from the Eurasia Group (EIU) anticipate oil prices to remain below the highs reached immediately after the conflict began, attributing this to weaker manufacturing activity and slower global economic growth. However, they also foresee substantial declines in oil inventories as consuming countries continue drawing on commercial and emergency reserves to compensate for reduced Gulf supplies. Most surveyed analysts do not expect the market to return to surplus until 2027, when improved Gulf shipping, recovering regional production, and sustained growth in non-OPEC supply are expected to bring additional barrels onto the market.",
  "summary": "Analysts have sharply raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with a new Reuters poll putting Brent crude at an average of $89.05 per barrel this year, up from $85.08 just a month ago. The September survey of 30 economists and analysts also raised the average forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $83.90 per…",
  "key_points": [
    "Oil price forecasts rise to $89.05 for Brent and $83.90 for WTI",
    "Gulf oil exports reach 23.3 million bpd, near 2025 average",
    "OPEC to keep production targets unchanged at next meeting"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}