{
  "id": 10934140,
  "title": "Analysts Cut China's Q4 Crude Import Forecasts by 400,000 Bpd",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/30/analysts-cut-chinas-q4-crude-import-forecasts-by-400-000-bpd",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-30T11:30:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "OilPrice",
    "slug": "oilprice",
    "url": "https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analysts-Cut-Chinas-Q4-Crude-Import-Forecasts-by-400000-Bpd.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Analysts have lowered their expectations for China's crude oil imports in the fourth quarter, cutting forecasts by approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). This reduction comes as oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel and independent refiners find it increasingly difficult to secure cheaper supplies due to the near-ceasing of Iranian barrels.\n\nChina is projected to import crude oil at roughly the same volumes in September as it did in August, indicating a trend of recovering shipments. However, the September deliveries were acquired at oil prices in the $80s, following the re-escalation in early September that pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel.\n\nIn August, China's crude oil imports saw a resurgence, up for the second consecutive month as refiners sought alternate non-Middle Eastern supply and escalated overseas fuel shipments amidst eased export restrictions. This represented a significant improvement from the all-time low of 7.1 million bpd observed in June, but still 23.4% lower than August levels from the previous year.\n\nThe decline in China's crude oil imports is primarily attributed to the U.S. blockade, which has effectively eliminated the regular, cost-effective supply previously relied upon by China's independent refiners to maintain competitiveness. Furthermore, Chinese state-owned giants are hesitant to purchase higher volumes of crude at prices above $100 per barrel, given the record-high freight costs and the reduced profitability of feedstock amid the elevated oil prices.\n\nSamuel Kong, a senior oil analyst at FGE NexantECA, noted that analysts do not anticipate a significant increase in China's crude imports due to the hefty premiums and expensive freight charges, which lower the margins and impede the refiners' ability to remain competitive. FGE NexantECA, as well as Energy Aspects, have revised their projections of China's fourth-quarter crude oil imports downwards by about 400,000 bpd, now anticipating levels ranging from 9.2 million bpd to 9.3 million bpd, considerably lower than the average of 11.6 million bpd observed in the previous year.",
  "summary": "China is not expected to materially boost its crude oil imports through the end of the year as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel again and independent refiners struggle to procure cheaper supply amid the near-disappearance of Iranian barrels. China is on track to import roughly the same volumes of crude oil in September as it did in August, extending the trend of recovering shipments.…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}