{
  "id": 10868517,
  "title": "Geldanlage: Wettanleger haben auf das Ende von Kanzler Merz spekuliert",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/30/geldanlage-wettanleger-haben-auf-das-ende-von-kanzler-merz-spekuliert",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-09-30T05:40:11.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Handelsblatt",
    "slug": "handelsblatt",
    "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/boerse-inside/geldanlage-wettanleger-haben-auf-das-ende-von-kanzler-merz-spekuliert/100257098.html"
  },
  "original_language": "de",
  "account": "In September, rumors and voices circulated about possible Chancellor Friedrich Merz stepping down, based on poor performances by the CDU in the Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state legislative elections, as well as the election to the Berlin parliament. On the Polymarket prediction platform, the corresponding bet on Merz resigning before the end of the year received significant attention, as shown by a Tradesweek analysis of the daily trading data. The market's probability of Merz's resignation as Chancellor stood at 33 percent five days before the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin elections, on September 15th. At the end of August, a \"Ja\"-contract (bet for Merz's resignation) cost around 33 cents, while a \"Nein\"-contract (bet for Merz staying as Chancellor) cost approximately 67 cents. As the CDU Presidential Council ordered an indirect confidence vote on the election day, the odds against Merz rose from the slightly increased pre-election level of 17.5 percent to over 24 percent within the day. While the party headquarters denied the rumors the next day, speculation persisted, even on Polymarket. When the Chancellor unexpectedly canceled his trip to the UN General Debate in New York, stating that his presence in Berlin was necessary, betting on Merz's end reached an all-time high. Most of the bets focused on the end of the year, with 2.2 million dollars traded on the main market in September, a fivefold increase compared to May-July monthly volumes. The September market, despite its short lifespan of a few weeks, had a relatively large volume of almost 400,000 dollars. In total, over 2,800 transactions took place on the main market in September, with many new accounts opening, marking a fifteenfold increase compared to the previous months. Nowadays, fewer people seem to believe in a Chancellor's resignation, with the odds dropping significantly after the eight CDU government chiefs collectively supported Merz in a statement on September 16th. Additionally, the emergence of alternative candidates like Hendrik Wüst or Markus Söder as potential successors might have contributed to the decline in odds. As of now, the odds for a premature Chancellor's exit by the end of the year stand at around twelve percent, priced at twelve cents for \"Ja\" contracts and ninety cents for \"Nein\" contracts on the market that would be closed once Merz announces his departure or the betting period ends.",
  "summary": "Die CDU hat bei den jüngsten Landtagswahlen viele Stimmen verloren. Zeitweise stand ein Rücktritt des Kanzlers im Raum – darauf spekulierten auch Wettanleger auf Prognosemärkten.",
  "key_points": [
    "Chancellor Merz resignation speculation peaked at 33% probability in early September",
    "CDU Presidential Council ordered indirect confidence vote on election day",
    "Odds for Merz's premature exit dropped to 12% by September 16th"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The waning bets on Chancellor Merz's resignation indicate a shift in market confidence, likely due to CDU leaders' support for him and emergence of alternative candidates, reducing odds to twelve percent.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}