{
  "id": 10768117,
  "title": "The Aberrational Century",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/29/the-aberrational-century",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-29T17:00:51.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Big Picture",
    "slug": "the-big-picture",
    "url": "https://ritholtz.com/2026/09/the-aberrational-century/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As September draws to a close, I find myself immersed in preparing for the upcoming Q4 quarterly call, scheduled for early October. I have chosen to share two tables that I find particularly intriguing. The first table (referenced above) contrasts the 10-year bonds and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage across two different time periods: the current era, dating back to the dotcom collapse, and the 25-year period preceding it. The data is striking: since 2001, the 10-year yield has been approximately 3.25%, while mortgages have averaged around 5.1%. In contrast, the previous 25-year period, from 1976 to 2000, witnessed the 10-year yield hovering around 8.5%, with mortgages averaging about 10.2%. This represents a doubling of the ultra-low rate conditions experienced during the first decade of the 21st century. The past quarter-century has been characterized by remarkably low average 10-year yields and remarkably affordable 30-year fixed mortgage rates, especially when compared to the prior 25-year period. Concerns about other factors contributing to rising rates are valid, and I will delve into these issues in the upcoming weeks. However, in the meantime, I have identified 10 potential drivers of higher interest rates:\n\n1. Pandemic fiscal stimulus\n2. AI-driven GDP growth\n3. Inflation, influenced by oil prices and the Iran war premium\n4. Inflation resulting from trade policy\n5. Global economic conditions souring on US Treasuries\n6. Duration: Weak demand for long-term bonds\n7. Deficit spending\n8. Corporate supply chain competition with the Treasury\n9. Japan's role in driving global yields higher\n10. Normalization of interest rates after the end of quantitative easing and the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP)\n\nToday's focus is on the last point, #10 above. There has been considerable apprehension surrounding the changes in the bond market, but I must question the extent to which this concern stems from our prolonged indulgence in ultra-cheap credit and the most affordable mortgages in our lifetimes. I invite you to examine the 10-year yield by decade below. Perhaps we should have been more appreciative of the exceptional ease with which we accessed credit and benefited from the lowest mortgage rates in our history. More insights will be provided next week...",
  "summary": "It’s the end of September, and that means I am busy working on the Q4 quarterly call (out early October). I decided to surface to share two tables I find absolutely fascinating. The first table (above) compares the 10-year bonds and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage across two distinct time periods: The present era, back… Read More The post The Aberrational Century appeared first on The Big Picture…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}