{
  "id": 10708218,
  "title": "Australia’s housing market hits a tipping point",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/29/australias-housing-market-hits-a-tipping-point",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-29T14:01:37.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MacroBusiness",
    "slug": "macrobusiness",
    "url": "https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/09/australias-housing-market-hits-a-tipping-point/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Australia's housing market is experiencing its steepest decline in more than four decades, with property values dropping by 5.9% since April across the country's five largest cities. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to raise interest rates for the second consecutive time, to a 15-year high of 4.60%, is expected to further tighten the market. This increase in borrowing costs is projected to reduce the average borrower's capacity by nearly $90,000, equivalent to a 9% decline in purchasing power. Financial experts foresee the RBA implementing one to two more rate hikes, potentially pushing the cash rate to 5.10%, its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. Such a scenario could see mortgage rates approach 7%, further eroding borrowing power and serviceability. Housing market analysts warn that the prolonged period of higher interest rates could precipitate a significant downturn in house prices, with peak-to-trough declines of 15% to 20% possible. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has even cautioned that an additional rate hike to 5.10% could trigger a \"tipping point\" for the housing market, resulting in a peak-to-trough decline of 15% to 20% in home values. HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham has forecast a more alarming 13% drop in capital city home prices. However, this projection could be surpassed if Australia encounters a surge in unemployment and a substantial rise in mortgage defaults, potentially leading to a severe housing correction reminiscent of the crashes seen in New Zealand and Canada, with values potentially plummeting by 20% in nominal terms and 30% in real terms.",
  "summary": "Australia’s housing market is facing its biggest decline in more than 40 years, with values already down by 5.9% since April across the five major capitals. Tuesday’s 25 bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the official cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60% and will add around $120 per The post Australia’s housing market hits a tipping point appeared first on MacroBusiness .",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}